气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04260-w
	Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River
	Curran A.; De Bruijn K.; Domeneghetti A.; Bianchi F.; Kok M.; Vorogushyn S.; Castellarin A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2027
结束页码	2049
卷号	104 期号:3
英文摘要	Reliable hazard analysis is crucial in the flood risk management of river basins. For the floodplains of large, developed rivers, flood hazard analysis often needs to account for the complex hydrology of multiple tributaries and the potential failure of dikes. Estimating this hazard using deterministic methods ignores two major aspects of large-scale risk analysis: the spatial–temporal variability of extreme events caused by tributaries, and the uncertainty of dike breach development. Innovative stochastic methods are here developed to account for these uncertainties and are applied to the Po River in Italy. The effects of using these stochastic methods are compared against deterministic equivalents, and the methods are combined to demonstrate applications for an overall stochastic hazard analysis. The results show these uncertainties can impact extreme event water levels by more than 2 m at certain channel locations, and also affect inundation and breaching patterns. The combined hazard analysis allows for probability distributions of flood hazard and dike failure to be developed, which can be used to assess future flood risk management measures. © 2020, The Author(s).
关键词	Copula Dike breaching Failure probabilities Flood risk Hazard analysis System behaviour
英文关键词	flood; hazard assessment; probability; spatial variation; stochasticity; temporal variation; water level; Italy; Po River
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205641
作者单位	Civil Engineering Faculty, TU Delft, Delft, Netherlands; Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy; GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Hydrology Section, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Curran A.,De Bruijn K.,Domeneghetti A.,et al. Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River[J],2020,104(3).
APA	Curran A..,De Bruijn K..,Domeneghetti A..,Bianchi F..,Kok M..,...&Castellarin A..(2020).Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River.Natural Hazards,104(3).
MLA	Curran A.,et al."Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River".Natural Hazards 104.3(2020).