气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Addressing uncertainty in extreme rainfall intensity for semi-arid urban regions: case study of Delhi, India

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04273-5
	Addressing uncertainty in extreme rainfall intensity for semi-arid urban regions: case study of Delhi, India
	Chaudhuri R.R.; Sharma P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2307
结束页码	2324
卷号	104 期号:3
英文摘要	Classical approaches are used to develop rainfall intensity duration frequency curves for the estimation of design rainfall intensities corresponding to various return periods. The study modelled extreme rainfall intensities at different durations and compared the classical Gumbel and generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions in semi-arid urban region. The model and parameter uncertainties are translated to uncertainties in design storm estimates. A broader insight emerges that rainfall extremes in 1 h and 3 h are sensitive to the choice of frequency analysis (GEV in this case) and helps address anticipated intensification of extreme events for short duration at urban local scale. In comparison with Gumbel, GEV predicts higher extreme rainfall intensity corresponding to various return periods and duration (for 1-h duration the increase in extreme rainfall intensity is from 27 to 33% for return periods 10 years and higher, 3-h and 50-year return period—20%, 3-h and 100-year return period—20.6%, 24 h at similar return periods—10%). The Bayesian posterior distribution has a calibration effect on the GEV predictions and reduces the upper range of uncertainty in the GEV probability model prediction from a range of 16–31% to 10–28.4% for return period varying from 10 to 50 year for 1-h storms. In geographically similar areas these extreme intensities may be used to prepare for the rising flash flood risks. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Bayesian Delhi Extreme rainfall Semi-arid Short duration Uncertainty
英文关键词	Bayesian analysis; extreme event; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; prediction; semiarid region; uncertainty analysis; Delhi; India
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205625
作者单位	Department of Regional Water Studies, TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10, Institutional Area, Vasant Kun, New Delhi, 110070, India; Department of Energy and Environment, TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10, Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi, 110070, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chaudhuri R.R.,Sharma P.. Addressing uncertainty in extreme rainfall intensity for semi-arid urban regions: case study of Delhi, India[J],2020,104(3).
APA	Chaudhuri R.R.,&Sharma P..(2020).Addressing uncertainty in extreme rainfall intensity for semi-arid urban regions: case study of Delhi, India.Natural Hazards,104(3).
MLA	Chaudhuri R.R.,et al."Addressing uncertainty in extreme rainfall intensity for semi-arid urban regions: case study of Delhi, India".Natural Hazards 104.3(2020).