气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of tropical cyclone recurrence rate: factors contributing to epistemic uncertainty

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04117-2
	Evaluation of tropical cyclone recurrence rate: factors contributing to epistemic uncertainty
	Bensi M.; Weaver T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	3011
结束页码	3041
卷号	103 期号:3
英文摘要	In this paper, we identify, assess and characterize epistemic uncertainties associated with the estimation of tropical cyclone storm recurrence rates. To illustrate the potential effects of epistemic uncertainty, we develop a range of storm surge recurrence rates at representative locations along the North Atlantic coast of the USA. We further illustrate how storm rate uncertainty impacts estimates of storm surge hazards. We consider the following factors when evaluating epistemic uncertainty in storm recurrence rate: (1) use of recorded storm track data versus interpolated storm track data, (2) the weighting method used for “counting” historical storms in the vicinity of the representative sites, (3) the kernel size used in the selected weighting method, (4) the intensity parameter used to filter “inconsequential storms” from the historical record, (5) the threshold value associated with the selected intensity filter, (6) the historical time period considered in the evaluation and (7) the impact of coastline geometry definition when partitioning storm populations. We observe that storm rate varies over orders of magnitude when considering these combinations of factors. When considering the effect of epistemic uncertainty in storm recurrence rate on estimated storm hazards, we find that the corresponding range of storm surge elevation spans multiple meters for a given annual exceedance frequency. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Epistemic uncertainty Joint probability method Probabilistic storm surge hazard assessment Recurrence rate Tropical cyclone
英文关键词	hazard assessment; recurrence interval; storm surge; storm track; tropical cyclone event; uncertainty analysis; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205605
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, 1143 Glenn Martin Hall, College Park, MD 20742, United States; U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bensi M.,Weaver T.. Evaluation of tropical cyclone recurrence rate: factors contributing to epistemic uncertainty[J],2020,103(3).
APA	Bensi M.,&Weaver T..(2020).Evaluation of tropical cyclone recurrence rate: factors contributing to epistemic uncertainty.Natural Hazards,103(3).
MLA	Bensi M.,et al."Evaluation of tropical cyclone recurrence rate: factors contributing to epistemic uncertainty".Natural Hazards 103.3(2020).