气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04282-4
	The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation
	Beevers L.; Collet L.; Aitken G.; Maravat C.; Visser A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2489
结束页码	2510
卷号	104 期号:3
英文摘要	Floods are the most common and widely distributed natural hazard, threatening life and property worldwide. Governments worldwide are facing significant challenges associated with flood hazard, specifically: increasing urbanization; against the background of uncertainty associated with increasing climate variability under climate change. Thus, flood hazard assessments need to consider climate change uncertainties explicitly. This paper explores the role of climate change uncertainty through uncertainty analysis in flood modelling through a probabilistic framework using a Monte Carlo approach and is demonstrated for case study catchment. Different input, structure and parameter uncertainties were investigated to understand how important the role of a non-stationary climate may be on future extreme flood events. Results suggest that inflow uncertainties are the most influential in order to capture the range of uncertainty in inundation extent, more important than hydraulic model parameter uncertainty, and thus, the influence of non-stationarity of climate on inundation extent is critical to capture. Topographic controls are shown to create tipping points in the inundation–flow relationship, and these may be useful and important to quantify for future planning and policy. Full Monte Carlo analysis within the probabilistic framework is computationally expensive, and there is a need to explore more time-efficient strategies which may result in a similar estimate of the full uncertainty. Simple uncertainty quantification techniques such as Latin hypercube sampling approaches were tested to reduce computational burden. © 2020, The Author(s).
关键词	Climate change Flood inundation Probabilistic Uncertainty quantification
英文关键词	catchment; climate change; climate modeling; fluvial deposit; natural hazard; numerical model; probability; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205601
作者单位	Water Resilient Cities Group, Institute for Infrastructure and the Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Irstea, HYCAR Research Unit, 1 rue Pierre Gilles de Gennes, Antony, 92 160, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Beevers L.,Collet L.,Aitken G.,et al. The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation[J],2020,104(3).
APA	Beevers L.,Collet L.,Aitken G.,Maravat C.,&Visser A..(2020).The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation.Natural Hazards,104(3).
MLA	Beevers L.,et al."The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation".Natural Hazards 104.3(2020).