气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Anomaly-based synoptic analysis on the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 in Japan

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-03888-y
	Anomaly-based synoptic analysis on the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 in Japan
	Ai Y.; Qian W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	651
结束页码	668
卷号	101 期号:3
英文摘要	The Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 caused huge social impact and economic losses in Japan. In this study, the anomaly-based synoptic analysis is applied to identify the features and structures of the anomalous synoptic systems during the event period. Results show that the heavy rainfall occurred along the trough of anomalous geopotential height (GPH) and the shear line of anomalous winds at the low troposphere. The anomalous synoptic analysis, by removing the temporal climatology from the total variables, can directly reflect the large-scale features of the event, which includes the actual position of the Baiu front, the pathway of anomalous moist air masses associated with anomalous synoptic systems such as the anomalies of Okhotsk cold high and the Northwest Pacific subtropical high. Meanwhile, the opposite signs between 200 and 850 hPa GPH anomalies, which matches observed rainfall records well, could be a good indicator of the potential heavy rain period. The product of the ensemble prediction systems from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is able to predict such potential anomalous signals of the Heavy Rain Event for 4–5 days in advance. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Anomaly-based synoptic analysis Extreme rainfall Potential signal Weather forecast
英文关键词	extreme event; precipitation intensity; seasonal variation; social impact; spatiotemporal analysis; synoptic meteorology; weather forecasting; Japan
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205570
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ai Y.,Qian W.. Anomaly-based synoptic analysis on the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 in Japan[J],2020,101(3).
APA	Ai Y.,&Qian W..(2020).Anomaly-based synoptic analysis on the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 in Japan.Natural Hazards,101(3).
MLA	Ai Y.,et al."Anomaly-based synoptic analysis on the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 in Japan".Natural Hazards 101.3(2020).