气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forest carbon trajectories: Consequences of alternative land-use scenarios in New England

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102310
	Forest carbon trajectories: Consequences of alternative land-use scenarios in New England
	Graham MacLean M.; Duveneck M.J.; Plisinski J.; Morreale L.L.; Laflower D.; Thompson J.R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	9593780
卷号	69
英文摘要	The extent to which forest carbon sequestration can help mitigate climate change will be determined in large part by future land use. Here we quantify the impacts of five divergent future land-use scenarios on aboveground forest carbon stocks and fluxes throughout New England. These scenarios, four co-designed with stakeholders from throughout the region and the fifth a continuation of recent trends in land use, were simulated by coupling a land-cover change model with a mechanistic forest growth model to produce estimates of aboveground carbon over 50 years. We tracked the fate of forest carbon removed through harvesting and development using a standard carbon accounting methodology, modified to fit our modeling framework. Of the simulated changes in land use, changes in harvesting had the most profound and immediate impacts on carbon stocks and fluxes. In one land-use scenario that included a rapid expansion of harvesting for biomass energy, New England's forests stopped serving as a net carbon sink and became a net carbon source by 2060. In an alternative scenario, relatively small reductions in harvest intensities (i.e., ~10% less biomass removed), coupled with an increased percent of wood going into longer-term storage, led to substantial reductions in net carbon emissions (909 MMtCO2eq) as compared to a continuation of recent trends in land use. However, these projected gains in carbon storage and reduction in emissions from less intense harvesting regimes can only be realized if they are paired with a reduction in the consumption of the timber products, and their replacements, that otherwise would result in additional emissions from leakage and substitution. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Carbon accounting Land use LANDIS-II PnET Scenario planning
英文关键词	carbon budget; carbon fixation; carbon flux; carbon sequestration; climate change; growth modeling; land use change; New England; United States; Matthiola
语种	英语
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205507
作者单位	Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA, United States; Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts – Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States; New England Conservatory, Boston, MA, United States; Department of Earth & Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Graham MacLean M.,Duveneck M.J.,Plisinski J.,et al. Forest carbon trajectories: Consequences of alternative land-use scenarios in New England[J],2021,69.
APA	Graham MacLean M.,Duveneck M.J.,Plisinski J.,Morreale L.L.,Laflower D.,&Thompson J.R..(2021).Forest carbon trajectories: Consequences of alternative land-use scenarios in New England.Global Environmental Change,69.
MLA	Graham MacLean M.,et al."Forest carbon trajectories: Consequences of alternative land-use scenarios in New England".Global Environmental Change 69(2021).