气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Growing stocks of buildings, infrastructures and machinery as key challenge for compliance with climate targets

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102034
	Growing stocks of buildings, infrastructures and machinery as key challenge for compliance with climate targets
	Krausmann F.; Wiedenhofer D.; Haberl H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	9593780
卷号	61
英文摘要	Drastic reductions of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions are required to meet the goal of the 2015 Paris climate accord to limit global warming to 1.5–2.0 °C over pre-industrial levels. We introduce the material stock-flow framework as a novel way to develop scenarios for future GHG emissions using methods from social metabolism research. The basic assumption behind our exploratory scenario approach is that nearly all final energy is required to either expand and maintain stocks of buildings, infrastructures and machinery or to provide services by using them. Distinguishing three country groups, we develop GDP- and population-driven scenarios for the development of these material stocks and the corresponding energy requirements based on historically calibrated model parameters. We analyze the results assuming different future pathways of CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy. The resulting cumulative carbon emissions from 2018 to 2050 range from 361 Gt C in the lower GDP-driven to 568 GtC in the higher population-driven scenario. The findings from the population-driven scenarios point towards the huge implications of a hypothetical convergence of per-capita levels of material stocks assuming current trajectories of technological improvements. Results indicate that providing essential services with a considerably lower level of material stocks could contribute to large reductions in global resource demand and GHG emissions. A comparison of different stock levels in 2050 demonstrates that complying with ambitious climate targets requires much faster declines of CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy if growth of material stocks is not limited. © 2020 The Authors
关键词	Climate-change mitigation Low-carbon living Material and energy flow analysis Material stocks Social metabolism SSP scenario
英文关键词	building; climate change; compliance; environmental economics; global warming; greenhouse gas; Gross Domestic Product; international agreement; machinery; material flow analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205461
作者单位	Department of Economics and Social Sciences (WiSo), Institute of Social Ecology (SEC), University of Natural Resources & Life Sciences, Schottenfeldgasse 29, Vienna, 1070, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Krausmann F.,Wiedenhofer D.,Haberl H.. Growing stocks of buildings, infrastructures and machinery as key challenge for compliance with climate targets[J],2020,61.
APA	Krausmann F.,Wiedenhofer D.,&Haberl H..(2020).Growing stocks of buildings, infrastructures and machinery as key challenge for compliance with climate targets.Global Environmental Change,61.
MLA	Krausmann F.,et al."Growing stocks of buildings, infrastructures and machinery as key challenge for compliance with climate targets".Global Environmental Change 61(2020).