气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Implications of renewable resource dynamics for energy system planning: The case of geothermal and hydropower in Kenya

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DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111985
	Implications of renewable resource dynamics for energy system planning: The case of geothermal and hydropower in Kenya
	Spittler N.; Davidsdottir B.; Shafiei E.; Diemer A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	03014215
卷号	150
英文摘要	Kenya's current electricity production is mainly relying on hydro and geothermal resources. Both of these resources are subject to complex dynamics that affect their sustainable utilization. Neither the current power expansion plan for Kenya, nor the existing electricity supply models address such effects. The research question in this paper is: What are the implications of hydro and geothermal resource dynamics for short- and long-term (sustainable) electricity system planning in Kenya? To answer this question a bottom-up system dynamics model representing the most prevalent technologies of Kenya's future electricity system, including the dynamics of geothermal and hydro resource utilization, is developed. The stock-flow system dynamics modelling allows to capture the resources characteristics and the link to electricity production. Due to the stock-like nature of geothermal resource, excessive utilization can lead to production capacity losses. In the case of hydro resources, climate change can reduce their availability significantly. A total of eight scenarios varying in demand size and consideration of resource dynamics are simulated and compared. The results indicate that when geothermal and hydro resource dynamics are considered, higher installed capacity will be required in the long-term to compensate production losses, which in turn leads to a higher electricity generation cost. © 2020
关键词	Electricity system planning Kenya Renewable resource dynamics Sustainable planning System dynamics
英文关键词	Climate change; Geothermal fields; System theory; Electricity generation cost; Electricity production; Geothermal resources; Installed capacity; Production capacity; Resource utilizations; Sustainable utilization; System dynamics model; Electric power generation; alternative energy; electricity generation; energy planning; future prospect; geothermal power; hydroelectric power; sustainable development; technology adoption; Kenya
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205351
作者单位	School of Engineering & Natural Sciences, Environment & Natural Resources, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland; Energy Transition Programme, DNV GL, Oslo, Norway; CERDI, University of Clermont Auvergne, 26 Avenue Leon Blum, Clermont Ferrand, 63000, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Spittler N.,Davidsdottir B.,Shafiei E.,et al. Implications of renewable resource dynamics for energy system planning: The case of geothermal and hydropower in Kenya[J],2021,150.
APA	Spittler N.,Davidsdottir B.,Shafiei E.,&Diemer A..(2021).Implications of renewable resource dynamics for energy system planning: The case of geothermal and hydropower in Kenya.Energy Policy,150.
MLA	Spittler N.,et al."Implications of renewable resource dynamics for energy system planning: The case of geothermal and hydropower in Kenya".Energy Policy 150(2021).