气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The technological and social timelines of climate mitigation: Lessons from 12 past transitions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112155
	The technological and social timelines of climate mitigation: Lessons from 12 past transitions
	Nelson S.; Allwood J.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	03014215
卷号	152
英文摘要	Delivering net zero by 2050 will require governments to utilise all available abatement opportunities, yet current policy largely ignores socially-driven mitigation in favour of technological innovation in the energy sector. Past energy transitions have typically taken several decades, but policymakers remain confident that low carbon technology can be deployed in time for a 2050 mitigation target. We consider the potential for social transitions to deliver emissions reductions within this time frame. Based on detailed analysis of 12 past transitions, we develop frameworks for technological and social transitions which draw out the relationships between progress, policy and diffusion. Using our generalised frameworks we compare the duration of transitions, finding that the technological transitions in our study take on average four decades longer than the social transitions to go from initial conception to market or behaviour saturation. Our evidence suggests that policymakers who continue to rely on technology transitions to reduce emissions will be unable to deliver climate targets by 2050. By engaging with the public to stimulate social transitions governments could have more impact, more swiftly. Only by utilising both technological and social transitions can policymakers hope to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Climate change Energy technology diffusion Innovation timescales Net zero Social change
英文关键词	Climate mitigations; Climate targets; Emissions reduction; Energy transitions; Low-carbon technologies; Technological innovation; Technological transition; Technology transition; Energy policy; climate change; emission control; environmental economics; innovation; social change; state role; technology adoption; technology diffusion
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205275
作者单位	Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Trumpington St, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nelson S.,Allwood J.M.. The technological and social timelines of climate mitigation: Lessons from 12 past transitions[J],2021,152.
APA	Nelson S.,&Allwood J.M..(2021).The technological and social timelines of climate mitigation: Lessons from 12 past transitions.Energy Policy,152.
MLA	Nelson S.,et al."The technological and social timelines of climate mitigation: Lessons from 12 past transitions".Energy Policy 152(2021).