气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Analyzing uncertainty in projections of Canadian energy use and production: Results and insights from EMF 34 scenarios

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111915
	Analyzing uncertainty in projections of Canadian energy use and production: Results and insights from EMF 34 scenarios
	Hansen M.; Bhargava A.; Nadew M.; Stogran M.; Hansen L.; Hundal M.; Budgell P.; Safton R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	03014215
卷号	148
英文摘要	This paper analyzes the uncertainty associated with Reference Case, or baseline, projections of Canadian energy use and production. We use the Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Futures modeling system to explore the impacts of changing key assumptions. The choice of assumptions and magnitude of change are guided by the scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 34 project. We find important variations across all scenarios. In particular, we note that Canada's role as an energy producer is important for interpreting projection and scenario results. Overall, this analysis shows that it is important to test key assumptions in a typical Reference Case projection. However, this analysis also highlights many complexities in energy system modeling. It is also important to consider the potential interplay between key variables. This speaks to the importance of broader scenario analysis, where multiple assumptions are changed in an internally consistent way, as a useful complement to the focused scenario analysis found in this paper. © 2020
关键词	Canada Demand Energy Modeling Projections Supply
英文关键词	Energy policy; Energy future; Energy model; Energy producers; Energy system model; Energy use; Key variables; Model system; Scenario analysis; Uncertainty analysis; demand analysis; electricity generation; electricity supply; energy use; modeling; scenario analysis; uncertainty analysis; Canada
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205129
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hansen M.,Bhargava A.,Nadew M.,et al. Analyzing uncertainty in projections of Canadian energy use and production: Results and insights from EMF 34 scenarios[J],2021,148.
APA	Hansen M..,Bhargava A..,Nadew M..,Stogran M..,Hansen L..,...&Safton R..(2021).Analyzing uncertainty in projections of Canadian energy use and production: Results and insights from EMF 34 scenarios.Energy Policy,148.
MLA	Hansen M.,et al."Analyzing uncertainty in projections of Canadian energy use and production: Results and insights from EMF 34 scenarios".Energy Policy 148(2021).