气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China

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DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112119
	Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China
	Chen H.; Liu S.; Liu Q.; Shi X.; Wei W.; Han R.; Küfeoğlu S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	03014215
卷号	150
英文摘要	Understanding the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure (ESI) is important to maintain a reliable power supply. Nonetheless, most existing studies focus on the physical impacts rather than the economic impacts, failing to provide references for the cost-benefit analysis of different abatement policies and measures. With this motivation, this study firstly employs a downscaled climate system model to project temperature paths in the future. Then, an integrated model is established to quantify both physical and economic impacts of long-term future temperature rise on the existing ESI components. Finally, the maximum climate-attributable impacts on China's ESI are assessed for the period from 2018 to 2099. Our major findings are that: (1) 10.2% of the generator ratings, 17.8% of the transmission and distribution line ratings and 10.0% of the transformer ratings are at risk of outage from expected climate change effects. (2) Around $258 billion of the existing ESI assets are at risk of outage due to the future surface temperature rise, representing 14.2% of the ESI assets in 2017. (3) The impacts of climate change on ESI vary substantially among different provinces and among different infrastructure components. These obtained results can provide important guidance for the mitigation and adaption strategies for the climate change impacts on the electricity sector. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	China Climate change Electricity supply infrastructure Temperature
英文关键词	Climate models; Cost benefit analysis; Economic and social effects; Outages; Climate change impact; Climate system model; Integrated modeling; Policies and measures; Reliable power supply; Surface temperatures; Transformer ratings; Transmission and distribution; Climate change; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; cost-benefit analysis; electricity supply; estimation method; infrastructure; surface temperature; China
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205049
作者单位	School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China; Energy Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1AG, United Kingdom; School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200030, China; Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, 34467, Turkey; Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Bahcesehir University, Istanbul, 34349, Turkey
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen H.,Liu S.,Liu Q.,et al. Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China[J],2021,150.
APA	Chen H..,Liu S..,Liu Q..,Shi X..,Wei W..,...&Küfeoğlu S..(2021).Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China.Energy Policy,150.
MLA	Chen H.,et al."Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China".Energy Policy 150(2021).