气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Study on the forecast model of electricity substitution potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region considering the impact of electricity substitution policies

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111686
	Study on the forecast model of electricity substitution potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region considering the impact of electricity substitution policies
	Wang Y.; Wang S.; Song F.; Yang J.; Zhu J.; Zhang F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	03014215
卷号	144
英文摘要	In recent years, China has introduced a series of energy substitution policies, aiming to achieve a fundamental change in the way of energy development. Firstly, based on the world energy model constructed by IEA, this paper determines the main driving factors in the field of power substitution, including economy, technology, policy, energy price and environmental factors. Secondly, based on the principle of system dynamics, a causal relationship diagram of five driving factors is constructed to clarify the feedback and linkage relationship between the factors. Finally, this paper proposes a hybrid prediction model combining Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) and Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSSVM), namely SSA-LSSVM, which fully considers the influence of relevant factors of electric energy substitution, while avoiding the subjectivity of model parameter setting. The results show that the future development of electric energy substitution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has maintained a rapid pace. The potential for electric energy substitution in the industrial production sector is large, and there is a large space for mining and operation optimization in the residential heating and transportation sectors. This paper provides a basis for the future development and improvement of the strategic plan of electric energy substitution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Beijing-tianjin-hebei Electrical energy substitution SSA-LSSVM method System dynamics
英文关键词	Environmental technology; Support vector machines; Beijing-tianjin-hebei regions; Causal relationships; Environmental factors; Hybrid prediction models; Industrial production; Least squares support vector machines; Operation optimization; Transportation sector; Predictive analytics; algorithm; electricity supply; energy policy; forecasting method; model; resource development; substitution; support vector machine; Beijing [China]; China; Hebei; Tianjin
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204920
作者单位	School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang Y.,Wang S.,Song F.,et al. Study on the forecast model of electricity substitution potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region considering the impact of electricity substitution policies[J],2020,144.
APA	Wang Y.,Wang S.,Song F.,Yang J.,Zhu J.,&Zhang F..(2020).Study on the forecast model of electricity substitution potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region considering the impact of electricity substitution policies.Energy Policy,144.
MLA	Wang Y.,et al."Study on the forecast model of electricity substitution potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region considering the impact of electricity substitution policies".Energy Policy 144(2020).