气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Oil price volatility and political unrest: Prudence and protest in producer and consumer societies, 1980

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111719
	Oil price volatility and political unrest: Prudence and protest in producer and consumer societies, 1980–2013
	Vadlamannati K.C.; de Soysa I.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	03014215
卷号	145
英文摘要	Revenue from oil makes countries susceptible to the “resource curse” since rulers have ready access to finance for buying off opposition rather than reform. We explore this issue by examining whether oil price volatility affects anti-government unrest. We argue that in oil-producing countries, low price years generate anti-government protest conditional on a state's access to foreign exchange reserves. The prudent management of oil revenue during boom years can allow some oil-rich states to manage political dissent while others fail. Contrarily, in oil-importing countries, high oil price years increase anti-government dissent, but again, conditional on access to foreign exchange reserves, which allow governments to ease the pain of austerity. Using panel data covering 165 countries between 1980 and 2013 (34 years), we find clear evidence in support of these propositions. Oil-producer countries that are able to resist political Dutch disease and save for “rainy days” are more capable of weathering low-price years. Similarly, oil import-dependent states face higher dissent during high oil price years, but conditional on access to foreign reserves. These results are in line with others that show that some oil producers avoid civil war through heavy public spending. Oil-rich countries should manage oil revenues in ways that allow them to survive the low price years, perhaps by avoiding both economic and political Dutch disease, which will only lead to inevitable regime challenge. The results are robust to alternative data, measurement, sample size, and estimation methods. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Dutch disease Forex reserves Oil price Oil wealth Political unrest
英文关键词	Economics; Proven reserves; Estimation methods; Foreign exchange reserve; Foreign reserves; Oil price volatility; Oil producers; Oil producing countries; Political unrest; Resource curse; Crude oil price; consumption behavior; energy policy; local government; oil production; policy implementation; public spending; Netherlands
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204898
作者单位	School of Politics & International Relations (SPIRe), University College Dublin (UCD), Ireland; Department of Sociology and Political Science (ISS), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vadlamannati K.C.,de Soysa I.. Oil price volatility and political unrest: Prudence and protest in producer and consumer societies, 1980–2013[J],2020,145.
APA	Vadlamannati K.C.,&de Soysa I..(2020).Oil price volatility and political unrest: Prudence and protest in producer and consumer societies, 1980–2013.Energy Policy,145.
MLA	Vadlamannati K.C.,et al."Oil price volatility and political unrest: Prudence and protest in producer and consumer societies, 1980–2013".Energy Policy 145(2020).