气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks: A system dynamics simulation analysis

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111795
	Resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks: A system dynamics simulation analysis
	Chen S.; Zhang M.; Ding Y.; Nie R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	03014215
卷号	146
英文摘要	Oil is an important energy resource that guarantees the operation of a country's production and life. To reduce the losses caused by the interruption of oil imports, it is urgent to build a system with resilience. By referring to the idea of resilience evolution curve and analyzing the feedback relationship among the four sub-modules of China's oil import system, this paper established a system dynamics (SD) simulation model to study resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks. Then, according to the different parameter groups, we simulated the performance changes of the oil import system in different scenarios, calculated the values of system resilience in different situations, and analyzed the possible critical points that system can still maintain normal operation. i) Diversified measures can enhance system resilience and reduce losses. ii) When the external shocks are strong, the extraordinary production of coal-to-oil and public participation also play an important role in mitigating risks. iii) The increase of strategic crude oil reserves, conversion coefficient of crude oil, the company's ability to guarantee oil security and the ratio of energy substitution enhance system resilience effectively. iv) The threshold for the system to maintain stability is found under a certain scenario. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	External shocks Oil import system Resilience System dynamics (SD)
英文关键词	Coal industry; Crude oil; Proven reserves; Public risks; System theory; Conversion coefficients; Crude oil reserves; Normal operations; Parameter groups; Public participation; Simulation model; System dynamics simulation; System resiliences; Petroleum industry; computer simulation; crude oil; economic instability; financial crisis; import; local participation; oil production; China
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204598
作者单位	School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China; Center for Environmental Management and Economics Policy Research, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen S.,Zhang M.,Ding Y.,et al. Resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks: A system dynamics simulation analysis[J],2020,146.
APA	Chen S.,Zhang M.,Ding Y.,&Nie R..(2020).Resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks: A system dynamics simulation analysis.Energy Policy,146.
MLA	Chen S.,et al."Resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks: A system dynamics simulation analysis".Energy Policy 146(2020).