气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Altered precipitation dynamics lead to a shift in herbivore dynamical regime

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DOI	10.1111/ele.13756
	Altered precipitation dynamics lead to a shift in herbivore dynamical regime
	Pepi A.; Holyoak M.; Karban R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1461023X
起始页码	1400
结束页码	1407
卷号	24 期号:7
英文摘要	The interaction between endogenous dynamics and exogenous environmental variation is central to population dynamics. Although investigations into the effects of changing mean climate are widespread, changing patterns of variation in environmental forcing also affect dynamics in complex ways. Using wavelet and time series analyses, we identify a regime shift in the dynamics of a moth species in California from shorter to longer period oscillations over a 34-year census, and contemporaneous changes in regional precipitation dynamics. Simulations support the hypothesis that shifting precipitation dynamics drove changes in moth dynamics, possibly due to stochastic resonance with delayed density-dependence. The observed shift in climate dynamics and the interaction with endogenous dynamics mean that predicting future population dynamics will require information on both climatic shifts and their interaction with endogenous density-dependence, a combination that is rarely available. Consequently, models based on historical data may be unable to predict future population dynamics. © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
关键词	climate change delayed density-dependence population dynamics stochastic resonance
英文关键词	climate change; density dependence; environmental gradient; herbivore; moth; population dynamics; precipitation (climatology); California; United States; climate change; herbivory; periodicity; population dynamics; Climate Change; Herbivory; Periodicity; Population Dynamics
语种	英语
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204470
作者单位	Graduate Group in Ecology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States; Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States; Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pepi A.,Holyoak M.,Karban R.. Altered precipitation dynamics lead to a shift in herbivore dynamical regime[J],2021,24(7).
APA	Pepi A.,Holyoak M.,&Karban R..(2021).Altered precipitation dynamics lead to a shift in herbivore dynamical regime.Ecology Letters,24(7).
MLA	Pepi A.,et al."Altered precipitation dynamics lead to a shift in herbivore dynamical regime".Ecology Letters 24.7(2021).