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| DOI | 10.1111/ele.13652 |
| Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics | |
| Nova N.; Deyle E.R.; Shocket M.S.; MacDonald A.J.; Childs M.L.; Rypdal M.; Sugihara G.; Mordecai E.A. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 1461023X |
| 起始页码 | 415 |
| 结束页码 | 425 |
| 卷号 | 24期号:3 |
| 英文摘要 | Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
| 关键词 | Arbovirusclimatedengueempirical dynamic modellingforecastingrainfallsusceptible population sizetemperaturevector-borne disease |
| 英文关键词 | climate change; climate forcing; disease incidence; disease transmission; disease vector; mosquito; population size; Puerto Rico; San Juan [Puerto Rico]; Arbovirus; animal; dengue; disease predisposition; population dynamics; Puerto Rico; temperature; Animals; Dengue; Disease Susceptibility; Population Dynamics; Puerto Rico; Temperature |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Ecology Letters
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204460 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Earth Research Institute & Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nova N.,Deyle E.R.,Shocket M.S.,et al. Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics[J],2021,24(3). |
| APA | Nova N..,Deyle E.R..,Shocket M.S..,MacDonald A.J..,Childs M.L..,...&Mordecai E.A..(2021).Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics.Ecology Letters,24(3). |
| MLA | Nova N.,et al."Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics".Ecology Letters 24.3(2021). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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