气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying 25 years of disease-caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread

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DOI	10.1111/ele.13703
	Quantifying 25 years of disease-caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread
	Cunningham C.X.; Comte S.; McCallum H.; Hamilton D.G.; Hamede R.; Storfer A.; Hollings T.; Ruiz-Aravena M.; Kerlin D.H.; Brook B.W.; Hocking G.; Jones M.E.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1461023X
起始页码	958
结束页码	969
卷号	24 期号:5
英文摘要	Infectious diseases are strong drivers of wildlife population dynamics, however, empirical analyses from the early stages of pathogen emergence are rare. Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), discovered in 1996, provides the opportunity to study an epizootic from its inception. We use a pattern-oriented diffusion simulation to model the spatial spread of DFTD across the species' range and quantify population effects by jointly modelling multiple streams of data spanning 35 years. We estimate the wild devil population peaked at 53 000 in 1996, less than half of previous estimates. DFTD spread rapidly through high-density areas, with spread velocity slowing in areas of low host densities. By 2020, DFTD occupied >90% of the species' range, causing 82% declines in local densities and reducing the total population to 16 900. Encouragingly, our model forecasts the population decline should level-off within the next decade, supporting conservation management focused on facilitating evolution of resistance and tolerance. © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
关键词	Approximate Bayesian Computation density dependence devil facial tumour disease disease spread emerging infectious disease host-pathogen integrated species distribution model Sarcophilus harrisii spatial capture-recapture wildlife disease
英文关键词	Sarcophilus harrisii
语种	英语
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204366
作者单位	School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia; Vertebrate Pest Research Unit, NSW Department of Primary Industries, 1447 Forest Road, Orange, NSW 2800, Australia; Environmental Futures Research Institute and School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia; CANECEV – Centre de Recherches Ecologiques et Evolutives sur le cancer (CREEC), Montpellier, 34090, France; School of Biological Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-4236, United States; Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, 123 Brown Street, Heidelberg, VIC 3084, Australia; School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, United States; Game Services Tasmania, Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, TAS, PO Box 44, Hobart, 7001, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Austra...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cunningham C.X.,Comte S.,McCallum H.,et al. Quantifying 25 years of disease-caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread[J],2021,24(5).
APA	Cunningham C.X..,Comte S..,McCallum H..,Hamilton D.G..,Hamede R..,...&Jones M.E..(2021).Quantifying 25 years of disease-caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread.Ecology Letters,24(5).
MLA	Cunningham C.X.,et al."Quantifying 25 years of disease-caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread".Ecology Letters 24.5(2021).