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| DOI | 10.1111/ele.13582 |
| Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments | |
| Saavedra S.; Medeiros L.P.; AlAdwani M. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 1461023X |
| 起始页码 | 1511 |
| 结束页码 | 1521 |
| 卷号 | 23期号:10 |
| 英文摘要 | The persistence of a species in a given place not only depends on its intrinsic capacity to consume and transform resources into offspring, but also on how changing environmental conditions affect its growth rate. However, the complexity of factors has typically taken us to choose between understanding and predicting the persistence of species. To tackle this limitation, we propose a probabilistic approach rooted on the statistical concepts of ensemble theory applied to statistical mechanics and on the mathematical concepts of structural stability applied to population dynamics models – what we call structural forecasting. We show how this new approach allows us to estimate a probability of persistence for single species in local communities; to understand and interpret this probability conditional on the information we have concerning a system; and to provide out-of-sample predictions of species persistence as good as the best experimental approaches without the need of extensive amounts of data. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
| 关键词 | ecological communitiesensemble theoryexperimental testsnonlinear population dynamicsout-of-sample predictionsprobabilitystatistical mechanicsstructural stability |
| 英文关键词 | complexity; data interpretation; environmental change; experimental study; growth rate; persistence; population dynamics; population modeling; probability; biological model; biometry; ecosystem; forecasting; population dynamics; Biometry; Ecosystem; Forecasting; Models, Biological; Population Dynamics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Ecology Letters
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204284 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Av, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Saavedra S.,Medeiros L.P.,AlAdwani M.. Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments[J],2020,23(10). |
| APA | Saavedra S.,Medeiros L.P.,&AlAdwani M..(2020).Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments.Ecology Letters,23(10). |
| MLA | Saavedra S.,et al."Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments".Ecology Letters 23.10(2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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