气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Advancements in multi-rupture time-dependent seismic hazard modeling, including fault interaction

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103650
	Advancements in multi-rupture time-dependent seismic hazard modeling, including fault interaction
	Iacoletti S.; Cremen G.; Galasso C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00128252
卷号	220
英文摘要	Several recent earthquake events (e.g., 2008 moment-magnitude (MW) 8.0 Wenchuan, China; 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand; 2019 MW 6.4–7.1 Ridgecrest sequence, USA) have emphasized the need to explicitly account for fault sources in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Fault-based PSHA currently involves a number of significant but necessary modeling assumptions that mainly relate to fault segmentation, multi-segment event occurrence, long-term fault interaction, and time-dependent/independent earthquake recurrence. Each of these issues is typically investigated in isolation, neglecting the implications of their dependencies. This study offers a review of the current literature on fault-based PSHA, unifying state-of-the-art advances in the field within a single harmonized framework. The framework specifically incorporates some underlying methodologies of the latest Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3; Field et al., 2014), providing a comprehensive means of relaxing fault segmentation, accounting for multi-segment ruptures in a standardized way, interpreting available fault data (e.g., slip rates and paleoseismic data) consistently, and inferring time-dependent probabilities of mainshock occurrence. The proposed framework also explicitly accounts for fault-interaction triggering between major known faults, using the approach outlined by Mignan et al. (2016) and Toda et al. (1998). A simple case study is established to demonstrate the framework's capabilities and limitations, involving a holistic investigation of the aforementioned modeling assumptions' effect on the seismic hazard estimates. The main findings of this study are (1) the ground-motion amplitude estimates can change significantly (for certain return periods) depending on the segmentation assumptions used (e.g., strict segmentation or relaxed segmentation, excluding multi-segment ruptures); (2) considering an ensemble of faults with a time-dependent occurrence model changes the shape of the hazard curve with respect to the time-independent assumption; (3) faults with the largest contribution to the hazard can differ between the time-dependent and time-independent cases; and (4) accounting for fault interaction may change the hazard estimates with respect to those obtained using classic time-dependent analysis (for which fault interaction is neglected). The framework provides a clear means of leveraging paleoseismic campaigns and slip rate data collections to potentially better constrain hazard estimates. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Fault interaction Fault model Fault segmentation Multi-rupture fault modelling Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis Time-dependent seismic hazard models
英文关键词	computer simulation; earthquake event; earthquake magnitude; earthquake mechanism; earthquake rupture; faulting; hazard assessment; numerical model; probability; seismic hazard; Sichuan earthquake 2008; time dependent behavior; China; Kaikoura; Marlborough; New Zealand; Sichuan; South Island; United States; Wenchuan
语种	英语
来源期刊	Earth Science Reviews
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204052
作者单位	Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, United Kingdom; Scuola Universitaria Superiore (IUSS), Pavia, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Iacoletti S.,Cremen G.,Galasso C.. Advancements in multi-rupture time-dependent seismic hazard modeling, including fault interaction[J],2021,220.
APA	Iacoletti S.,Cremen G.,&Galasso C..(2021).Advancements in multi-rupture time-dependent seismic hazard modeling, including fault interaction.Earth Science Reviews,220.
MLA	Iacoletti S.,et al."Advancements in multi-rupture time-dependent seismic hazard modeling, including fault interaction".Earth Science Reviews 220(2021).