气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Geographical landslide early warning systems

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102973
	Geographical landslide early warning systems
	Guzzetti F.; Gariano S.L.; Peruccacci S.; Brunetti M.T.; Marchesini I.; Rossi M.; Melillo M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	00128252
卷号	200
英文摘要	The design, implementation, management, and verification of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are gaining increasing attention in the literature and among government officials, decision makers, and the public. Based on a critical analysis of nine main assumptions that form the rationale for landslide forecasting and early warning, we examine 26 regional, national, and global LEWSs worldwide from 1977 to August 2019. We find that currently only five nations, 13 regions, and four metropolitan areas benefit from LEWSs, while many areas with numerous fatal landslides, where landslide risk to the population is high, lack LEWSs. Operational LEWSs use information from rain gauge networks, meteorological models, weather radars, and satellite estimates; and most systems use two sources of rainfall information. LEWSs use one or more types of landslide forecast models, including rainfall thresholds, distributed slope stability models, and soil water balance models; and most systems use landslide susceptibility zonations. Most LEWSs have undergone some form of verification, but there is no accepted standard to check the performance and forecasting skills of a LEWS. Based on our review, and our experience in the design, implementation, management, and verification of geographical LEWSs in Italy, we conclude that operational forecast of weather-induced landslides is feasible, and it can help reduce landslide risk. We propose 30 recommendations to further develop and improve geographical LEWSs, and to increase their reliability and credibility. We encourage landslide forecasters and LEWSs managers to propose open standards for geographical LEWSs, and we expect our work to contribute to this endeavour. © 2019 The Authors
关键词	Advisory Forecast Landslide Landslide early warning system Model Threshold
英文关键词	critical analysis; early warning system; forecasting method; landslide; metropolitan area; modeling; radar; raingauge; slope stability; soil water; threshold; Italy
语种	英语
来源期刊	Earth Science Reviews
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/203726
作者单位	CNR IRPI, via della Madonna Alta 126, Perugia, I 06128, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guzzetti F.,Gariano S.L.,Peruccacci S.,et al. Geographical landslide early warning systems[J],2020,200.
APA	Guzzetti F..,Gariano S.L..,Peruccacci S..,Brunetti M.T..,Marchesini I..,...&Melillo M..(2020).Geographical landslide early warning systems.Earth Science Reviews,200.
MLA	Guzzetti F.,et al."Geographical landslide early warning systems".Earth Science Reviews 200(2020).