气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comment on “Elastic strain energy and pore-fluid pressure control of aftershocks” by Terakawa et al. [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 535 (2020) 116103]

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116402
	Comment on “Elastic strain energy and pore-fluid pressure control of aftershocks” by Terakawa et al. [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 535 (2020) 116103]
	Mignan A.; Broccardo M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0012821X
卷号	544
英文摘要	Aftershock occurrence is the dominant phenomenon observed in seismicity, offering a wealth of data for the statistical learning of the earthquake nucleation process. However, physical interpretability can be biased by a number of well-known pitfalls. In this comment, we show that the study of Terakawa et al. (2020), who concluded that the spatial distribution of aftershocks is best explained by a combination of elastic strain energy and pore-fluid pressure change (ΔEFS), is beset by both confirmation bias and data leakage. Using the same data (1992 Landers mainshock), procedure (binary classification), and metrics (Area Under the Curve, AUC), we find that the simple empirical model based on aftershock-distance-to-mainshock-rupture (Mignan and Broccardo, 2019) performs to a level (AUC = 0.76) similar to the one obtained by ΔEFS (AUC = 0.75 [0.70-0.77]). Including the Big Bear rupture improves the distance-based model performance up to AUC = 0.86. From a statistical perspective, we further show that including pore-fluid pressure change, being calculated from earthquake focal mechanisms, is equivalent to implicitly propagating aftershock location information into the model. Such type of data leakage clearly improves any classifier performance. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	confirmation bias data leakage earthquake generation Landers earthquake null-hypothesis testing ROC analysis
英文关键词	Earth (planet); Strain energy; Area under the curves; Binary classification; Classifier performance; Distance-based models; Earthquake focal mechanisms; Earthquake nucleation; Elastic strain energy; Statistical learning; Earthquakes
语种	英语
来源期刊	Earth and Planetary Science Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202786
作者单位	Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management, Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China; Swiss Seismological Service, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland; Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mignan A.,Broccardo M.. Comment on “Elastic strain energy and pore-fluid pressure control of aftershocks” by Terakawa et al. [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 535 (2020) 116103][J],2020,544.
APA	Mignan A.,&Broccardo M..(2020).Comment on “Elastic strain energy and pore-fluid pressure control of aftershocks” by Terakawa et al. [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 535 (2020) 116103].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,544.
MLA	Mignan A.,et al."Comment on “Elastic strain energy and pore-fluid pressure control of aftershocks” by Terakawa et al. [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 535 (2020) 116103]".Earth and Planetary Science Letters 544(2020).