气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming

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DOI	10.1016/j.epsl.2019.115911
	Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming
	Friedrich T.; Timmermann A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0012821X
卷号	530
英文摘要	Future greenhouse warming projections conducted with coupled climate models still exhibit a substantial spread in response to a given anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration scenario. In order to constrain this spread and to provide robust warming projections, our understanding of Earth's global-mean surface temperature response to radiative forcing (referred to as climate sensitivity) needs to be further refined. Here we estimate an averaged glacial/interglacial climate sensitivity using 25 transient Earth system model simulations of the Last Glacial Cycle and a global-mean sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction derived from 64 globally-distributed paleo-proxies of SST. Our results document that Earth's averaged Late Pleistocene equilibrium climate sensitivity is in the order of ∼4.2 K per CO2 doubling. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, this value translates into a global-mean surface warming of ∼5.0 K by the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels. This estimate is in excellent agreement with the ensemble-mean projection of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our uncertainty analysis reveals further that the lack of robust reconstructions of glacial aerosol forcing is a key contributor to the overall uncertainty of paleo-based estimates of climate sensitivity. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	climate sensitivity glacial cycles global warming paleo modeling
英文关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Atmospheric temperature; Glacial geology; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Greenhouses; Oceanography; Repair; Submarine geophysics; Surface properties; Surface waters; Uncertainty analysis; Climate sensitivity; Coupled climate model; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Glacial cycles; Global mean surface temperature; Pre-industrial levels; Robust reconstruction; Sea surface temperature (SST); Climate models; climate change; future prospect; glacial environment; global warming; greenhouse gas; paleoenvironment; Pleistocene; reconstruction; sea surface temperature; sensitivity analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Earth and Planetary Science Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202586
作者单位	Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Sciences and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manōa, 1000 Pope Road, Marine Science Building (MSB) 205, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States; Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan, South Korea; Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Friedrich T.,Timmermann A.. Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming[J],2020,530.
APA	Friedrich T.,&Timmermann A..(2020).Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,530.
MLA	Friedrich T.,et al."Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming".Earth and Planetary Science Letters 530(2020).