气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-15-571-2021
	Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
	Donat-Magnin M.; Jourdain N.C.; Kittel C.; Agosta C.; Amory C.; Gallée H.; Krinner G.; Chekki M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	571
结束页码	593
卷号	15 期号:2
英文摘要	We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 % 17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gtyr-1 in 1989 2009 to 455 Gtyr-1 in 2080 2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mmyr-1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % °C-1 to 8.9 % °C-1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century. © 2021 Author(s).
英文关键词	boundary condition; climate change; CMIP; future prospect; ice sheet; mass balance; melting; Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarctica; West Antarctic Ice Sheet; West Antarctica
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202297
作者单位	Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France; SPHERES Research Unit, Geography Department, University of Liège, Liège, 4000, Belgium; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91198, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Donat-Magnin M.,Jourdain N.C.,Kittel C.,et al. Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet[J],2021,15(2).
APA	Donat-Magnin M..,Jourdain N.C..,Kittel C..,Agosta C..,Amory C..,...&Chekki M..(2021).Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.Cryosphere,15(2).
MLA	Donat-Magnin M.,et al."Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet".Cryosphere 15.2(2021).