气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021
	Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties
	Berdahl M.; Leguy G.; Lipscomb W.H.; Urban N.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	2683
结束页码	2699
卷号	15 期号:6
英文摘要	Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4 km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500-member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future. © 2021 Mira Berdahl et al.
英文关键词	ensemble forecasting; ice sheet; numerical model; quantitative analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202278
作者单位	Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Computational Physics and Methods Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; Computational Science Initiative, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Berdahl M.,Leguy G.,Lipscomb W.H.,et al. Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties[J],2021,15(6).
APA	Berdahl M.,Leguy G.,Lipscomb W.H.,&Urban N.M..(2021).Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties.Cryosphere,15(6).
MLA	Berdahl M.,et al."Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties".Cryosphere 15.6(2021).