气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry

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DOI	10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
	Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry
	Zeitz M.; Levermann A.; Winkelmann R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	3537
结束页码	3550
卷号	14 期号:10
英文摘要	Acceleration of the flow of ice drives mass losses in both the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow, melt, and calving. While major advancements have been made by the ice-sheet modeling community in addressing several of the related uncertainties, the flow law, which is at the center of most process-based ice-sheet models, is not in the focus of the current scientific debate. However, recent studies show that the flow law parameters are highly uncertain and might be different from the widely accepted standard values. Here, we use an idealized flow-line setup to investigate how these uncertainties in the flow law translate into uncertainties in flow-driven mass loss. In order to disentangle the effect of future warming on the ice flow from other effects, we perform a suite of experiments with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), deliberately excluding changes in the surface mass balance. We find that changes in the flow parameters within the observed range can lead up to a doubling of the flow-driven mass loss within the first centuries of warming, compared to standard parameters. The spread of ice loss due to the uncertainty in flow parameters is on the same order of magnitude as the increase in mass loss due to surface warming. While this study focuses on an idealized flow-line geometry, it is likely that this uncertainty carries over to realistic three-dimensional simulations of Greenland and Antarctica. © 2020 Author(s).
英文关键词	geometry; ice cover; melting; one-dimensional modeling; parameterization; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202261
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, Potsdam, 14476, Germany; LDEO, Columbia University, New York, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zeitz M.,Levermann A.,Winkelmann R.. Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry[J],2020,14(10).
APA	Zeitz M.,Levermann A.,&Winkelmann R..(2020).Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry.Cryosphere,14(10).
MLA	Zeitz M.,et al."Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry".Cryosphere 14.10(2020).