气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): ISMIP6 Antarctica: A multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

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DOI	10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
	ISMIP6 Antarctica: A multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
	Seroussi H.; Nowicki S.; Payne A.J.; Goelzer H.; Lipscomb W.H.; Abe-Ouchi A.; Agosta C.; Albrecht T.; Asay-Davis X.; Barthel A.; Calov R.; Cullather R.; Dumas C.; Galton-Fenzi B.K.; Gladstone R.; Golledge N.R.; Gregory J.M.; Greve R.; Hattermann T.; Hoffman M.J.; Humbert A.; Huybrechts P.; Jourdain N.C.; Kleiner T.; Larour E.; Leguy G.R.; Lowry D.P.; Little C.M.; Morlighem M.; Pattyn F.; Pelle T.; Price S.F.; Quiquet A.; Reese R.; Schlegel N.-J.; Shepherd A.; Simon E.; Smith R.S.; Straneo F.; Sun S.; Trusel L.D.; Breedam J.V.; Van De Wal R.S.W.; Winkelmann R.; Zhao C.; Zhang T.; Zwinger T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	3033
结束页码	3070
卷号	14 期号:9
英文摘要	Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to presentday conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6:1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica. © Author(s) 2020.
英文关键词	climate conditions; CMIP; ice flow; ice sheet; ice shelf; ice-ocean interaction; sea level; sea level change; twentieth century; twenty first century; Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarctica; East Antarctica
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202207
作者单位	Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Nasa Goddard Space Flight Center, GreenbeltMD, United States; University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland; Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; Natio...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Seroussi H.,Nowicki S.,Payne A.J.,et al. ISMIP6 Antarctica: A multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century[J],2020,14(9).
APA	Seroussi H..,Nowicki S..,Payne A.J..,Goelzer H..,Lipscomb W.H..,...&Zwinger T..(2020).ISMIP6 Antarctica: A multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century.Cryosphere,14(9).
MLA	Seroussi H.,et al."ISMIP6 Antarctica: A multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century".Cryosphere 14.9(2020).