气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice extent

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-14-2159-2020
	Modeling the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice extent
	Handcock M.S.; Raphael M.N.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	2159
结束页码	2172
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	The total Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) experiences a distinct annual cycle, peaking in September and reaching its minimum in February. In this paper we propose a mathematical and statistical decomposition of this temporal variation in SIE. Each component is interpretable and, when combined, gives a complete picture of the variation in the sea ice. We consider timescales varying from the instantaneous and not previously defined to the multi-decadal curvilinear trend, the longest. Because our representation is daily, these timescales of variability give precise information about the timing and rates of advance and retreat of the ice and may be used to diagnose physical contributors to variability in the sea ice. We define a number of annual cycles each capturing different components of variation, especially the yearly amplitude and phase that are major contributors to SIE variation. Using daily sea ice concentration data, we show that our proposed invariant annual cycle explains 29% more of the variation in daily SIE than the traditional method. The proposed annual cycle that incorporates amplitude and phase variation explains 77% more variation than the traditional method. The variation in phase explains more of the variability in SIE than the amplitude. Using our methodology, we show that the anomalous decay of sea ice in 2016 was associated largely with a change of phase rather than amplitude. We show that the long term trend in Antarctic sea ice extent is strongly curvilinear and the reported positive linear trend is small and dependent strongly on a positive trend that began around 2011 and continued until 2016. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	amplitude; annual cycle; decomposition; numerical model; sea ice; snow cover; temporal variation; trend analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202094
作者单位	Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles, United States; Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Handcock M.S.,Raphael M.N.. Modeling the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice extent[J],2020,14(7).
APA	Handcock M.S.,&Raphael M.N..(2020).Modeling the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice extent.Cryosphere,14(7).
MLA	Handcock M.S.,et al."Modeling the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice extent".Cryosphere 14.7(2020).