气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

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DOI	10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
	The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
	Goelzer H.; Nowicki S.; Payne A.; Larour E.; Seroussi H.; Lipscomb W.H.; Gregory J.; Abe-Ouchi A.; Shepherd A.; Simon E.; Agosta C.; Alexander P.; Aschwanden A.; Barthel A.; Calov R.; Chambers C.; Choi Y.; Cuzzone J.; Dumas C.; Edwards T.; Felikson D.; Fettweis X.; Golledge N.R.; Greve R.; Humbert A.; Huybrechts P.; Le Clec'H S.; Lee V.; Leguy G.; Little C.; Lowry D.; Morlighem M.; Nias I.; Quiquet A.; Rückamp M.; Schlegel N.-J.; Slater D.A.; Smith R.; Straneo F.; Tarasov L.; Van De Wal R.; Van Den Broeke M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	3071
结束页码	3096
卷号	14 期号:9
英文摘要	The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6).We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90-50 and 32-17mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean. © Author(s) 2020.
英文关键词	climate modeling; CMIP; ensemble forecasting; global climate; greenhouse gas; ice retreat; meltwater; model; runoff; sea level change; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Greenland; Greenland Ice Sheet
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202089
作者单位	Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Goddard Space Flight Center, Nasa, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States; Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba, 277-8564, Japan; Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Goelzer H.,Nowicki S.,Payne A.,et al. The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6[J],2020,14(9).
APA	Goelzer H..,Nowicki S..,Payne A..,Larour E..,Seroussi H..,...&Van Den Broeke M..(2020).The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6.Cryosphere,14(9).
MLA	Goelzer H.,et al."The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6".Cryosphere 14.9(2020).