气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Going with the floe: Tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020
	Going with the floe: Tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations
	Duvivier A.K.; Derepentigny P.; Holland M.M.; Webster M.; Kay J.E.; Perovich D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	1259
结束页码	1271
卷号	14 期号:4
英文摘要	In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shifted toward a younger, thinner, seasonal ice regime. Studying and understanding this "new" Arctic will be the focus of a year-long ship campaign beginning in autumn 2019. Lagrangian tracking of sea ice floes in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) during representative "perennial" and "seasonal" time periods allows for understanding of the conditions that a floe could experience throughout the calendar year. These model tracks, put into context a single year of observations, provide guidance on how observations can optimally shape model development, and how climate models could be used in future campaign planning. The modeled floe tracks show a range of possible trajectories, though a Transpolar Drift trajectory is most likely. There is also a small but emerging possibility of high-risk tracks, including possible melt of the floe before the end of a calendar year. We find that a Lagrangian approach is essential in order to correctly compare the seasonal cycle of sea ice conditions between point-based observations and a model. Because of high variability in the melt season sea ice conditions, we recommend in situ sampling over a large range of ice conditions for a more complete understanding of how ice type and surface conditions affect the observed processes.We find that sea ice predictability emerges rapidly during the autumn freeze-up and anticipate that process-based observations during this period may help elucidate the processes leading to this change in predictability. © Author(s) 2020.
英文关键词	ensemble forecasting; freeze drying; risk assessment; sampling; seasonal variation; trajectory; Arctic
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202072
作者单位	National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Duvivier A.K.,Derepentigny P.,Holland M.M.,et al. Going with the floe: Tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations[J],2020,14(4).
APA	Duvivier A.K.,Derepentigny P.,Holland M.M.,Webster M.,Kay J.E.,&Perovich D..(2020).Going with the floe: Tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations.Cryosphere,14(4).
MLA	Duvivier A.K.,et al."Going with the floe: Tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations".Cryosphere 14.4(2020).