气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Possible biases in scaling-based estimates of glacier change: A case study in the Himalaya

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DOI	10.5194/tc-14-3235-2020
	Possible biases in scaling-based estimates of glacier change: A case study in the Himalaya
	Banerjee A.; Patil D.; Jadhav A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	3235
结束页码	3247
卷号	14 期号:9
英文摘要	Approximate glacier models are routinely used to compute the future evolution of mountain glaciers under any given climate-change scenario. A majority of these models are based on statistical scaling relations between glacier volume, area, and/or length. In this paper, long-term predictions from scaling-based models are compared with those from a two-dimensional shallow-ice approximation (SIA) model. We derive expressions for climate sensitivity and response time of glaciers assuming a time-independent volume-area scaling. These expressions are validated using a scaling-model simulation of the response of 703 synthetic glaciers from the central Himalaya to a step change in climate. The same experiment repeated with the SIA model yields about 2 times larger climate sensitivity and response time than those predicted by the scaling model. In addition, the SIA model obtains area response time that is about 1.5 times larger than the corresponding volume response time, whereas scaling models implicitly assume the two response times to be equal to each other. These results indicate the possibility of a low bias in the scaling model estimates of the long-term loss of glacier area and volume. The SIA model outputs are used to obtain parameterisations, climate sensitivity, and response time of glaciers as functions of ablation rate near the terminus, mass-balance gradient, and mean thickness. Using a linear-response model based on these parameterisations, we find that the linear-response model outperforms the scaling model in reproducing the glacier response simulated by the SIA model. This linear-response model may be useful for predicting the evolution of mountain glaciers on a global scale. © 2020 Author(s).
英文关键词	ablation; climate effect; glacier advance; glacier mass balance; mountain environment; parameterization; shallow water; volume transport; Himalayas
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202024
作者单位	Ecs, Iiser Pune, Pune, 411008, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Banerjee A.,Patil D.,Jadhav A.. Possible biases in scaling-based estimates of glacier change: A case study in the Himalaya[J],2020,14(9).
APA	Banerjee A.,Patil D.,&Jadhav A..(2020).Possible biases in scaling-based estimates of glacier change: A case study in the Himalaya.Cryosphere,14(9).
MLA	Banerjee A.,et al."Possible biases in scaling-based estimates of glacier change: A case study in the Himalaya".Cryosphere 14.9(2020).