气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
	Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison
	Andresen C.G.; Lawrence D.M.; Wilson C.J.; David McGuire A.; Koven C.; Schaefer K.; Jafarov E.; Peng S.; Chen X.; Gouttevin I.; Burke E.; Chadburn S.; Ji D.; Chen G.; Hayes D.; Zhang W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	445
结束页码	459
卷号	14 期号:2
英文摘要	This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	active layer; evapotranspiration; hydrology; infiltration; permafrost; river basin; runoff; soil moisture; water flux; Arctic
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202017
作者单位	Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE), Université Grenoble Alps and CNRS, Grenoble, France; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; IRSTEA-HHLY, Lyon, France; IRSTEA-ETNA, Grenoble, France; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; College of Global Change and Earth System Scie...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andresen C.G.,Lawrence D.M.,Wilson C.J.,et al. Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison[J],2020,14(2).
APA	Andresen C.G..,Lawrence D.M..,Wilson C.J..,David McGuire A..,Koven C..,...&Zhang W..(2020).Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison.Cryosphere,14(2).
MLA	Andresen C.G.,et al."Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison".Cryosphere 14.2(2020).