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| Assessment of the adaptation capabilities of two major temperate-zone forest defoliators in the context of their northward expansion in response to global climate change | |
| 项目编号 | 20-64-46011 |
| Martemyanov Vyacheslav | |
| 项目主持机构 | Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals Siberian Branch of RAS, |
| 开始日期 | 2020 |
| 结束日期 | 2022 |
| 英文摘要 | As a consequence of accelerating climate warming, the shift of insect outbreaks to the north is creating new and serious pest management concerns. It is important to note that the northward shift of insect distributions occurs much faster than that of the plant belt in the same direction. This desynchronization, especially in the case of economically significant pests, can lead to irreversible consequences for forest ecosystems. Russia is a leader in terms of area of boreal forests, making it an important risk zone for expanding centers of outbreaks of phytophagous insects. At the present time, the most significant forest pests in Russia are two lepidopteran insects, the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) and the Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetverikov). The first species is polyphagous, feeding on over 500 species of woody plants. The second is oligophagous, damaging exclusively conifers, but causing enormous losses to forestry. The cost of pest management for these two insects is comparable to, or even exceeds, the cost of management for the remaining species of forest pests in Russia. Moreover, due to a decrease of shading during defoliation and an increase of dead wood, the likelihood of fires increases (Kharuk, Antamoshkina 2017). An example is the world-famous fires in colossal area of the current 2019 in the taiga zone of Siberia. Therefore, the problem of forests defoliation by pests is not only an economic risk, but also has a direct relation with danger for human health. The fact that a shift of outbreaks towards the north is taking place has already been demonstrated and is not called into question; the rate at which this occurs, however, has not been documented. In this project, we will study the speed of this phenomenon and the ability of the studied insects to adapt to the new conditions they encounter as a result of a northward range expansion. Mathematical models based on climate predictors have already forecasted a significant shift (hundreds of kilometers) of the northern limit of L. dispar’s distribution. However, it is still unclear how the species will respond to changing climatic zones, which, in Siberia, clearly correlate with latitudinal zones. For the two studied species, movement to the north is expected to occur according to different scenarios. For the gypsy moth, which in Siberia has now reached the borders of the light coniferous taiga, a critical barrier will be host plant changes, shifting from deciduous to coniferous trees. In comparison, the Siberian silk moth already feeds on conifers, so a shift in host plant should not be an obstacle. However, the qualitative composition of secondary metabolites in host plants that currently serve as hosts could change, which could largely determine the insect’s reproductive success. In addition, heat supply, and its dynamics, will significantly impact on the successful development of both species. The tasks for this project will include: 1) documentation of the actual rate of area expansion of L. dispar and D. sibiricus to the north; 2) study of the main chemical determinants of leaf toxicity of current and potential host plants (Silver birch, Betula pendula; Siberian larch Larix sibirica; Siberian fir, Abies sibirica); 3) documentation of the adaptive abilities of L. dispar and its outbreak potential when feeding on conifers; 4) study of heat supply in microclimatic conditions of habitat of the two studied species in a latitudinal geographic gradient; 5) use of modern genetic approaches (genotyping based on nuclear SNP markers using NGS) to compare the genetic structure of northern and central insect populations; 6) study of the mechanisms of phenological adaptation of D. sibiricus to climatic conditions (different voltinism in the same population) using molecular approaches. 7) study of the contribution of entomopathogenic infections to the regulation of the northern populations of Siberian and gypsy moths. Thus, the results of the project will (i) provide a comprehensive evaluation of the probability of northward expansion of the two main species of phytophagous forest pests in Russia, (ii) timely assess the risks/probability of these insects adapting to the new conditions they encounter, and (iii) assess the validity of current climatic models that predict changes in boundaries of insect distribution as a result of climate warming. The scientific novelty of the proposed work rests on fact that data will be acquired on the potential of northward range expansion for two major tree pests, where such data are currently unavailable or very approximate. This project will allow acquisition of biological data to enhance accuracy of forecasts of the observed range expansion of the studied species. Moreover, the project will enable the identification of the main biological mechanisms that are at play during this expansion, which will serve as a further foundation for the protection of Siberian forests. |
| 英文关键词 | invasion;forest phyllophages;global climate change;forest drying;molecular markers;adaptation;phytochemistry;gypsy moth;Siberian silk moth |
| 学科分类 | 06 - 生物科学 |
| 资助机构 | RU-RSF |
| 国家 | RU |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/191730 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Martemyanov Vyacheslav.Assessment of the adaptation capabilities of two major temperate-zone forest defoliators in the context of their northward expansion in response to global climate change.2020. |
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