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| Investigation of decadal and interdecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic and Arctic | |
| 项目编号 | 20-17-18023 |
| Diansky Nikolay | |
| 项目主持机构 | State oceanographic institute, |
| 开始日期 | 2020 |
| 结束日期 | 2021 |
| 英文摘要 | The importance of decadal and multi-decadal joint oscillations in the North Atlantic (NA) and the Arctic for the state of the Earth’s climate system is caused by the fact that this signal has a significant effect on the changes and variability of the Earth’s climate as a whole and especially in Eurasia. First of all, these fluctuations are manifested in the evolution of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO), which is reflected in the variability of the main climate characteristics, such as surface air temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation indices, such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation, etc. The nature of the formation Decadal and multi-decadal climate variability is still not fully understood and there are a number of theories of its formation, which were the subject of study of the previous stages of the project. Therefore, the relevance of the scientific problems of the Project has not decreased. Research is supposed to continue in the following three directions. Direction 1. The study of oceanic mechanisms of the formation of decadal and multi-decadal variability in NA. In the circulation of NA, decadal and multi-decadal variability with characteristic separable ranges of periods of 10–30 and 50–80 years is well distinguished. These periods are well manifested in NA during the time series of AMO, a pronounced climatic signal reflecting the variability of the thermohaline state of NA. The work in this direction will be based on a joint analysis of observational data and numerical modelling. In this case, studies are divided into two approaches. In the first of them, an analysis of the thermohaline state and water circulation in the NA from 1948 to present will be carried out according to modern objective analysis of the temperature and salinity of the oceans EN4 and WOA2013, as well as according to global ocean reanalyses GFDL, GECCO2, ESTOC and ORA- S4 and possibly some others. The interconnections of the thermohaline characteristics of NA and the dynamics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and their contributions to the formation of AMO will be revealed. An analysis will also be made of the features of the reappearance of the anomalous structure of the characteristics of the upper mixed layer in the NA using several oceanic reanalyses. Along with this, an analysis of climatic trends in the thermohaline state, sea ice and water circulation in the system of the NA and the Arctic Ocean (Arctic Ocean) will be carried out. Within the second approach, a comprehensive analysis of the state and circulation of water in the NA and the Arctic Ocean will be carried out using numerical simulations with the new version of the sigma-model of the ocean general circulation INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model), developed at the INM RAS. This version of the model was implemented at the previous stages of the Project for the Global ocean area with a eddy-permitting resolution 0.25 °. Using this version of INMOM, long-term numerical simulations of the circulation of the World Ocean and the characteristics of sea ice from 1948 to the present will be carried out. The use of special data from the CORE-II database (Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments, Phase II, https://www.wcrp-climate.org/modelling-wgcm-mip-catalogue/modelling- wgcm-mips / 247-modeling-wgcm-catalog-core), which were prepared by the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) for autonomous climate simulations by ocean general circulation models and are characterized by good radiation balance. Since CORE data are limited to 2009, atmospheric data will be recreated to date based on the current versions of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as well as the Drakkar and JRA55 projects, and the best one for the extension of the CORE series will be selected. Based on the results of numerical simulations on reproducing hydrothermodynamic characteristics of the ocean and sea ice, climate variability in the NA and the Arctic Ocean will be studied, including the study of AMO formation, and modeling results will be compared with the results obtained when studying the data of oceanic objective analyzes and reanalyses. It should be noted that only the combined use of the analysis of observational data and the results of numerical modeling would achieve the goals of the first direction of research on the project in the best way. Direction 2. Study of the potential predictability of natural fluctuations in the Arctic and North Atlantic. During the implementation of the project in 2017-2019, using the techniques developed by the participants, the nature was studied of 60-year and 15-year climate fluctuations in the NA and the Arctic Ocean in the climate model INMCM5 (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Climate Model, version 5) developed at the INM RAS. According to the results, there is every reason to believe that there is a potential predictability of these fluctuations, since a phase of the warm Arctic is preceded by a certain anomaly in the state of the ocean. As a result, the problem arises of studying the predictability of oscillations directly, by conducting direct ensemble numerical experiments with climate models. The planned studies will make it possible to draw reasonable conclusions about the predictability time of each phase of the oscillation for various characteristics of the INM RAS model (surface temperature, heat content of the upper layer, etc.), for its various versions, and in comparison with the results of analysis of other models of the CMIP6 experiment. Note that at the final stage of the project implementation (2019), several similar simulations were performed to verify the empirical methods used, however, their number and formulation do not allow us to answer the questions posed above. Direction 3. Analysis of the manifestations of decadal and multi-decadal fluctuations in the hydrometeorological fields of the Atlantic-European region, including the European part of Russia. AMO is a significant manifestation of natural variability in the ocean-atmosphere system and affects various climatic characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere. As part of the previous three years of the project, an analysis was made of the degree and nature of AMO connections with the hydrothermodynamic characteristics of the mixed layer and heat fluxes at the ocean-atmosphere boundary in the NA. The main mechanism by which AMO affects the climatic characteristics of regions adjacent to the NA is the atmospheric response to thermal anomalies in the ocean, leading to a shift in the centers of impact of the atmosphere. Using available and long-term data of modern atmospheric reanalyzes, further ideas will be developed on the influence of AMO on the variability of hydrometeorological fields in the Atlantic-European region, including the European part of Russia. |
| 英文关键词 | climatic system;antropogenic climate changes;eigenmodes;natural variability;predictability;climate modelling;Atlantic multidecadal oscillation;Pacific decadal oscillation;ocean general circulation model;Earth system model |
| 学科分类 | 08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | RU-RSF |
| 国家 | RU |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/191728 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Diansky Nikolay.Investigation of decadal and interdecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic and Arctic.2020. |
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