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| Holocene climate variability and biodiversity changes in the Altai Mountains based on the study of high-resolution lacustrine records | |
| 项目编号 | 20-17-00110 |
| Rudaya Natalia | |
| 项目主持机构 | The Institute of Archaeology and Ethnography of the Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, |
| 开始日期 | 2020 |
| 结束日期 | 2022 |
| 英文摘要 | Due to the instability of the climate of recent decades, one of the priority tasks for the world scientific community is to study the Earth’s climate changes in the past, identify their causes, patterns, consequences, and make forecasts (Climate Change 2014, IPCC). It is necessary to understand how climate instability of the past 150 years is associated with human activity, whether there were similar periods in the past, what were the dynamics and cyclicity of processes of climate change in different parts of the Earth; how frequent extreme climate events (fires, droughts, floods) were, what caused them, what were their consequences for people and nature. Currently, new researches have appeared that indicate the sixth mass extinction of species, which began in the last millennium and has been noticeably activated in recent decades (Barnosky et al., 2011; Ceballos et al., 2017). Researchers emphasize that the real rate of modern extinction of species significantly exceeds that calculated according to paleontological data Modern ecosystems are the legacy of past climate change as a result of changes in glacial and interglacial cycles that began 2.6 million years ago and mostly took place without human impact. Today, a sharp change in atmospheric conditions, climate warming and instability, an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the disappearance of natural habitats, pollution of the environment, excessive fishing and hunting, invasion of ecosystems of pathogenic species and an increase in human biomass turned out to be the most extreme factors for living organisms (Barnosky et al., 2011). The Altai Mountains, located on the border of several states and climatic zones, is an interesting and important object for studying the biodiversity and natural landscape of the Holocene. Obtaining high-resolution Holocene records will allow a detailed study of climate dynamics and related changes in natural conditions and the level of biodiversity in the region, as well as assess the impact of human activities on biodiversity change at present and in the Holocene. Thus, desertification and land degradation, caused by a number of factors, including climate change and human activities, is becoming a serious socio-economic problem in the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. Particularly dramatic changes are recorded in mountain regions with the highest biodiversity and concentration of economically important resources (wood, productive pastures, fresh water supplies; Convention of Biological diversity: Agenda 21, Chapter 13). Thus, one of the most important tasks for scientists working with natural Holocene paleoarchives of Central Asia as a whole and the Altai Mountains in particular is the need to assess whether desertification and loss of biodiversity are the cause (1) of only increased anthropogenic pressure on landscapes (overgrazing, intensive deforestation); (2) only the influence of natural trends or (3) both of these factors are in superposition in different periods of the Holocene. The solution to this problem requires detailed local and regional paleoecological reconstructions using various paleoarchives. Another important issue besides a retrospective analysis of the interaction of people and nature, which is also solved by a quantitative study of the characteristics of the paleoclimate, is the development of ideas about modern changes in natural conditions for predicting and modeling the future. The aim of the project is a quantitative assessment of biological diversity and the relationship of the level of biodiversity with climate fluctuations during the Holocene for the Altai Mountains. The main task that will be solved during the project is to test the hypothesis that in different periods of the Holocene Altai landscapes and biodiversity were most influenced either by climate changes (for example, in the Holocene optimum), or climate change and increased human activities at the same time (for example, in the Late Holocene). Solving this problem requires detailed local and regional paleoecological reconstructions using various paleoarchives. For the first time, the quantitative reconstruction of past biodiversity (with a focus on the diversity of plants, representatives of lake fauna and flora) using paleontological and paleogenetic methods will be done for the Altai Mountains and neighboring territories. During the implementation of the project, climate change models will be construct and the final general scheme for the development of landscapes of the Altai Mountains and adjacent territories in the Holocene will be suggested. Using quantitative methods applied to the data of palynological, diatom, chironomid, and cladocer analyzes, metagenomic studies, and the method of plant DNA sequencing in lake sediments, the change in plant biodiversity and biodiversity of lake organisms will be evaluated, the dynamics of changes in biodiversity during the Holocene will be reveled, and the causes of the variation in the level of biodiversity will be determined. An analysis of the constructed climate models in conjunction with other data for the region will allow us to assess the degree of human influence on landscapes and biodiversity. The data obtained can be used to predict changes in the region’s biodiversity under various scenarios of climate change and anthropogenic pressure on landscapes. The results of the project will be (1) publications in the first quartile journals cited by WoS; (2) the creation of a paleobiological and paleogeographic database ‘PaleoAltai’. |
| 英文关键词 | Climate variability;past biodiversity;quantitative reconstruction;Holocene;pollen;diatoms;cladocera;chironomids;sedaDNA;Altai |
| 学科分类 | 08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | RU-RSF |
| 国家 | RU |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/191722 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rudaya Natalia.Holocene climate variability and biodiversity changes in the Altai Mountains based on the study of high-resolution lacustrine records.2020. |
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