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| Study of climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings using climate model of INM RAS | |
| 项目编号 | 20-17-00190 |
| Volodin Evgeny | |
| 项目主持机构 | Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Aсademy of Sciences, |
| 开始日期 | 2020 |
| 结束日期 | 2022 |
| 英文摘要 | The problem of climate sensitivity to various anthropogenic external forcings will be studied in the project. The most significant forcing at present is an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, and in the first place carbon dioxide. Climate models have different equilibrium sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 concentration, and in recent years the range of uncertainty has not only not decreased, but even increased. In particular, the number of models having an equilibrium sensitivity of more than 5K is increasing. All versions of the INM RAS climate model have sensitivity at the lower end of the range, about 2K, and the reasons for this are not clear. The project involves the study of the causes of the low sensitivity of the INM climate model, including the calculation of the feedback coefficients for various processes, the study of changes in equilibrium sensitivity to changes in the radiation properties of clouds and other processes that potentially affect sensitivity. In the framework of the project, the parametrization of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) will be modernized by the method of constructing a separate boundary layer model on its own grid, because ABL clouds strongly affect sensitivity. In addition to greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, and primarily sulfate aerosol and black carbon, have a significant impact on the climate. However, the direct radiation forcing of anthropogenic black carbon in the INM climate model is significantly less than the estimates given in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. As a result of the work, the evolution model of black carbon and its radiation properties will be modernized so that they correspond to generally accepted estimates. In addition to the direct radiation effect of soot, the effect of the influence of black carbon on the albedo of snow and ice will also be taken into account, for which it is proposed to improve the parameterization of the snow cover. The indirect effect of sulfate aerosol will be taken into account in such a way that it is consistent with generally accepted estimates. A study will be conducted on how sensitivity to major anthropogenic influences affects the reproduction of climate changes observed in the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. The consideration of each effect will be adjusted in a way to most accurately reproduce the climate changes observed in the last century. The program of the proposed studies is very relevant, because despite the obvious progress in numerical modeling of climate and its changes, the question of climate model sensitivity to main anthropogenic forcing remains open. Moreover, preliminary CMIP6 results show that the range of uncertainty in the equilibrium sensitivity to CO2 doubling has become even greater than for the models of the previous phase of the project. At the same time, there is no improvement in the reproduction of the climate changes observed in the last century, including the globally averaged temperature. The novelty of the proposed studies is that with this climate model, which reproduces the changes observed in the last century, more successfully than many CMIP6 models and in the standard configuration has low equilibrium sensitivity, such studies have not been conducted. In addition, when improving the model parameterizations, it is supposed to use new approaches, such as calculating the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer on a separate grid, which until now has not been used in climate models. |
| 英文关键词 | Model;climate;sensitivity;feedback parameter;radiation;parameterization;cloudiness;aerosols;water vapor;ocean;boundary layer |
| 学科分类 | 08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | RU-RSF |
| 国家 | RU |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/191720 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Volodin Evgeny.Study of climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings using climate model of INM RAS.2020. |
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