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| ADVANCE (Aerosol-cloud-climate interactions derived from Degassing VolcANiC Eruptions) | |
| 项目编号 | 5C6C26C2-E4E2-4D0B-831D-398FDF79E7E4 |
| James Haywood | |
| 项目主持机构 | University of Exeter |
| 开始日期 | 2020-06-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2023-05-31 |
| 英文摘要 | Anthropogenic emissions that affect climate are not just confined to greenhouse gases. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and other pollutants form atmospheric aerosols that scatter and absorb sunlight, and influence the properties of clouds, modulating the Earth-atmosphere energy balance. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols exert a significant, but poorly quantified, cooling of climate that acts to counterbalance the global warming from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Uncertainties in aerosol-climate impacts are dominated by uncertainties in aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) which operates through aerosols acting as cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN) which increases the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) while reducing the size of cloud droplets and subsequently impact rain formation which may change the overall physical properties of clouds. This consequently impacts the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (the climate response per unit climate forcing) because climate models with a strong/weak aerosol cooling effect and a high/low climate sensitivity respectively are both able to represent the historic record of global mean temperatures. On a global mean basis, the most significant anthropogenic aerosol by mass and number is sulphate aerosol resulting from the ~100Tg per year emissions of sulphur dioxide from burning of fossil fuels, but these plumes are emitted quasi-continuously owing to the nature of industrial processes, meaning that there is no simple 'control' state of the climate where sulphur dioxide is not present. On/off perturbation/control observations have, to date, been limited to observations of ship tracks but the spatial scales of such features are far less than the resolution of the weather forecast models or of the climate models that are used in future climate projections. This situation changed dramatically in 2014 with the occurrence of the huge fissure eruption at Holuhraun in 2014-2015 in Iceland, which was the largest effusive degassing event from Iceland since the eruption of Laki in 1783-17849. The eruption at Holuhraun emitted sulphur dioxide at a peak rate of up to 1/3 of global emissions, creating a massive plume of sulphur dioxide and sulphate aerosols across the entire North Atlantic. In effect, Iceland became a significant global/regional pollution source in an otherwise unpolluted environment where clouds should be most susceptible to aerosol emissions. Thus, the eruption at Holuhraun created an excellent analogy for studying the impacts of anthropogenic emissions of sulphur dioxide and the resulting sulphate aerosol on ACI.Our research will comprehensively evaluate impacts of the Holuhraun aerosol plume on clouds, precipitation, the energy balance, and key weather and climate variables. Observational analysis will be extended beyond that of our pilot study to include high quality surface sites. Two different climate models will be used; HadGEM3, which is the most up to date version of the Met Office Unified model and ECHAM6-HAM, developed by MPI Hamburg. These models are chosen because they produce radically different responses in terms of ACI; ECHAM6-HAM produces far stronger ACI impacts overall than HadGEM3. Additionally, the UK Met Office Unified Model framework means that the underlying physics is essentially identical in low-resolution climate models and high-resolution numerical weather predication models, a feature that is unique in weather/climate research. In the high resolution numerical weather prediction version, parameterisations of convection can be turned off and sub-gridscale processes can be explicitly represented. Thus the impacts of choices of parameterisation schemes and discrete values of variables within the schemes may be evaluated. The research promises new insights into ACI and climate sensitivity promising us great strides improving weather and climate models and simulations of the future. |
| 学科分类 | 08 - 地球科学;09 - 环境科学 |
| 资助机构 | UK-AHRC |
| 项目经费 | 650265 |
| 项目类型 | Research Grant |
| 国家 | UK |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/191157 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | James Haywood.ADVANCE (Aerosol-cloud-climate interactions derived from Degassing VolcANiC Eruptions).2020. |
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