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| Exploiting km-resolution climate models in the tropics to constrain climate change uncertainties (trCLIM) | |
| 项目编号 | 200021_192133 |
| Schär Christoph | |
| 项目主持机构 | ETH Zurich - ETHZ |
| 开始日期 | 2020-06-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2023-11-30 |
| 英文摘要 | Currently major efforts are underway towards refining the horizontal resolution (or grid spacing) of climate models to about 1 km, using both global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs). Several groups have succeeded in conducting km-scale multi-week GCM simulations, and decade-long continental-scale RCM simulations. There is the well-founded hope that this increase in resolution represents a step change in climate modeling, as it enables replacing the parameterization of moist convection by an explicit treatment. Studies in this area have mostly addressed the extratropics, and have found pronounced improvements in the representation of the summer climate, in particular related to the representation of cloud cover, precipitation and heavy precipitation events. More recent studies indicate that the potential of km-resolution models is even more promising in the tropics, where convection is one of the key processes throughout the seasonal cycle. This recognition is of importance not only for assessing climate impacts in the tropics, but also critical for constraining current projections of global climate change. First, the organization of subtropical shallow clouds can strongly influence the reflection of sunlight and thereby the global energy balance and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Second, due to the presence of deep convection in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), it is expected that km-resolution models will improve the representation of the tropical circulations and better constrain their sensitivity to climate change. These two factors are among the most important uncertainties in global climate change and ultimately also affect the extratropics. Indeed, in order to constrain climate change projections in the extratropics, uncertainties in the tropics need to be addressed. Here we propose exploiting an RCM to address the tropical climate on large computational domains covering most of the tropical Atlantic. The primary workhorse of the project is the limited-area COSMO model, which has been recently adapted to run entirely on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). In addition, an advanced version of the next-generation ICON model will also be exploited. The main scientific objectives of the proposal are to (i) improve the understanding of seasonal and interannual variations in tropical cloud cover over the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, (ii) explore the potential of km-resolution models in representing multiscale aspects of the tropical climate (addressing the mesoscale organization of clouds and its role for the radiation budget), and (iii) assess the role of tropical clouds for climate change by conducting comprehensive limited-area climate-change experiments. Preliminary simulation results indicate that the spatial variations and organization of cloud cover and top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes are surprisingly well represented using the targeted modeling approach. We thus expect that the results of the current proposal will improve the representation of tropical clouds and will contribute towards better constraining current estimates of climate sensitivity and climate projections. |
| 英文关键词 | Climate sensitivity; High-resolution climate modeling; Climate change |
| 学科分类 | 0805 - 大气科学;08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | CH-SNSF |
| 项目经费 | 872637 |
| 项目类型 | Project funding (Div. I-III) |
| 国家 | CH |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/191151 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schär Christoph.Exploiting km-resolution climate models in the tropics to constrain climate change uncertainties (trCLIM).2020. |
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