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| Enabling rapid assessments of local climate change impacts across emission scenarios with an emulator | |
| 项目编号 | P1EZP2_195662 |
| Beusch Lea | |
| 项目主持机构 | Institution abroad - IACH |
| 开始日期 | 2020-11-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2021-04-30 |
| 英文摘要 | Earth System Models (ESMs) are invaluable tools to study the Earth system’s response to changing greenhouse gas concentrations. Their projections serve as input to impact and integrated assessment models, which assess the impact of climate change on a chosen quantity of interest. However, climate change projections are associated with uncertainties arising from three main sources, namely, natural variability, our imperfect knowledge of the Earth system’s sensitivity to anthropogenic influences manifesting itself in ESM differences, and scenarios, i.e. which future pathway of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions we choose. Multiple runs of multiple ESMs under multiple scenarios can be employed to address these uncertainties. Since running an ESM is computationally expensive, the number of runs which is feasible to be generated is limited but climate change impact and integrated assessment models could profit from more runs and a better sampling of the uncertainty phase space. Hence, there is an interest in approximating ESM output with computationally efficient emulators. In the first part of my PhD, I have developed a modular framework for ESM emulation and based on this framework I have created MESMER, a Modular Earth System Model Emulator with spatially Resolved output, version 1.0 (Beusch et al., 2020). MESMER stochastically produces large ensembles of ESM-specific land temperature field time series at a yearly temporal resolution at a negligible computational cost. If trained on runs from several ESMs, MESMER can account for both natural variability and ESM uncertainty. In the Doc.Mobility project I propose here, the MESMER implementation will be extended to additionally account for the last major source of climate change projection uncertainty, the greenhouse gas emission scenario uncertainty. For this purpose, MESMER will be coupled with MAGICC (Meinshausen et al., 2011), a widely used simple energy-balance climate model which emulates global mean temperature trends for any emission scenario. The coupling will occur by replacing the current global mean temperature trend module of MESMER, which cannot emulate across emission scenarios, with MAGICC. Additionally, I will evaluate whether changes to any other MESMER modules need to be implemented to successfully emulate temperature field time series across emission scenarios. This coupling will furthermore open avenues for joint temperature and precipitation emulation, the feasibility of which I will evaluate in the second part of the proposed Doc.Mobility project. Precipitation is expected to be more challenging to emulate than temperature as it exhibits more complex behaviour in both its grid-point-level trends and the variability around them. MAGICC output will help address these challenges as it contains several variables which are of importance for regional precipitation. MESMER version 2.0, which I plan to develop during this Doc.Mobility project, will be published in an open-access peer-reviewed journal and its code will be released under an open-source licence alongside with it.Overall, coupling MESMER and MAGICC will be an essential step forward in developing the next generation of ESM emulators which will provide spatially-resolved output of key climate variables across emission scenarios, for both grid-point-level trends and the variability around them. The coupled emulator will thus be of great value for the climate change impact and integrated assessment communities by enabling computationally efficient, rapid assessments of climate change impacts across emission scenarios at local and regional scales. |
| 英文关键词 | Temperature; Projections; Earth system model emulator; Regional; Precipitation; Ensemble; Climate change; Compound events |
| 学科分类 | 0805 - 大气科学;08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | CH-SNSF |
| 项目类型 | Doc.Mobility |
| 国家 | CH |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/190938 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Beusch Lea.Enabling rapid assessments of local climate change impacts across emission scenarios with an emulator.2020. |
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