气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): MEDEAS: A new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints

CCPortal

DOI	10.1039/c9ee02627d
	MEDEAS: A new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints
	Capellán-Pérez I.; De Blas I.; Nieto J.; De Castro C.; Miguel L.J.; Carpintero Ó.; Mediavilla M.; Lobejón L.F.; Ferreras-Alonso N.; Rodrigo P.; Frechoso F.; Álvarez-Antelo D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17545692
起始页码	986
结束页码	1017
卷号	13 期号:3
英文摘要	A diversity of integrated assessment models (IAMs) coexists due to the different approaches developed to deal with the complex interactions, high uncertainties and knowledge gaps within the environment and human societies. This paper describes the open-source MEDEAS modeling framework, which has been developed with the aim of informing decision-making to achieve the transition to sustainable energy systems with a focus on biophysical, economic, social and technological restrictions and tackling some of the limitations identified in the current IAMs. MEDEAS models include the following relevant characteristics: Representation of biophysical constraints to energy availability; modeling of the mineral and energy investments for the energy transition, allowing a dynamic assessment of the potential mineral scarcities and computation of the net energy available to society; consistent representation of climate change damages with climate assessments by natural scientists; integration of detailed sectoral economic structure (input-output analysis) within a system dynamics approach; energy shifts driven by physical scarcity; and a rich set of socioeconomic and environmental impact indicators. The potentialities and novel insights that this framework brings are illustrated by the simulation of four variants of current trends with the MEDEAS-world model: The consideration of alternative plausible assumptions and methods, combined with the feedback-rich structure of the model, reveal dynamics and implications absent in classical models. Our results suggest that the continuation of current trends will drive significant biophysical scarcities and impacts which will most likely derive in regionalization (priority to security concerns and trade barriers), conflict, and ultimately, a severe global crisis which may lead to the collapse of our modern civilization. Despite depicting a much more worrying future than conventional projections of current trends, we however believe it is a more realistic counterfactual scenario that will allow the design of improved alternative sustainable pathways in future work. © 2020 The Royal Society of Chemistry.
英文关键词	Biophysics; Climate change; Damage detection; Decision making; Economics; Environmental impact; Investments; Open systems; Sustainable development; Economic structure; Energy availability; Input output analysis; Integrated assessment models; Modern civilization; Plausible assumptions; Sustainable energy systems; System dynamics approach; Climate models; climate change; decision making; environmental impact; global perspective; input-output analysis; integrated approach; numerical model; socioeconomic conditions
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy & Environmental Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/189673
作者单位	Research Group on Energy, Economy and System Dynamics, Escuela de Ingenieriás Industriales, University of Valladolid, Paseo del Cauce s/n, Valladolid, 47011, Spain; Department of Systems Engineering and Automatic Control, Escuela de Ingenieriás Industriales, University of Valladolid, Paseo del Cauce s/n, Valladolid, 47011, Spain; Department of Applied Economics, University of Valladolid, Av. Valle Esgueva 6, Spain; Department of Applied Physics, Escuela de Arquitectura, University of Valladolid, Av Salamanca, 18, Valladolid, 47014, Spain; CARTIF Foundation, Parque Tecnológico de Boecillo, Boecillo Valladolid, 47151, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Capellán-Pérez I.,De Blas I.,Nieto J.,et al. MEDEAS: A new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints[J],2020,13(3).
APA	Capellán-Pérez I..,De Blas I..,Nieto J..,De Castro C..,Miguel L.J..,...&Álvarez-Antelo D..(2020).MEDEAS: A new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints.Energy & Environmental Science,13(3).
MLA	Capellán-Pérez I.,et al."MEDEAS: A new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints".Energy & Environmental Science 13.3(2020).