气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

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DOI	10.1029/2019RG000660
	Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change
	Bellouin N.; Quaas J.; Gryspeerdt E.; Kinne S.; Stier P.; Watson-Parris D.; Boucher O.; Carslaw K.S.; Christensen M.; Daniau A.-L.; Dufresne J.-L.; Feingold G.; Fiedler S.; Forster P.; Gettelman A.; Haywood J.M.; Lohmann U.; Malavelle F.; Mauritsen T.; McCoy D.T.; Myhre G.; Mülmenstädt J.; Neubauer D.; Possner A.; Rugenstein M.; Sato Y.; Schulz M.; Schwartz S.E.; Sourdeval O.; Storelvmo T.; Toll V.; Winker D.; Stevens B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	87551209
卷号	58 期号:1
英文摘要	Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m−2, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m−2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds. ©2019. The Authors.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Reviews of Geophysics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/188085
作者单位	Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Institute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany; Space and Atmospheric Physics Group, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; EPOC, UMR 5805, CNRS-Université de Bordeaux, Pessac, France; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France; NOAA ESRL Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; CEMPS, University of Exeter, Exe...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bellouin N.,Quaas J.,Gryspeerdt E.,et al. Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change[J],2020,58(1).
APA	Bellouin N..,Quaas J..,Gryspeerdt E..,Kinne S..,Stier P..,...&Stevens B..(2020).Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.Reviews of Geophysics,58(1).
MLA	Bellouin N.,et al."Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change".Reviews of Geophysics 58.1(2020).