气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis at Regional and National Scales: State of the Art and Future Challenges

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019RG000653
	Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis at Regional and National Scales: State of the Art and Future Challenges
	Gerstenberger M.C.; Marzocchi W.; Allen T.; Pagani M.; Adams J.; Danciu L.; Field E.H.; Fujiwara H.; Luco N.; Ma K.-F.; Meletti C.; Petersen M.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	87551209
卷号	58 期号:2
英文摘要	Seismic hazard modeling is a multidisciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components developed from Earth science: seismic source and ground motion models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the forecast length, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses consider forecasting windows of 30 to 50 years, which are typically an engineering demand for building code purposes. These types of analyses are the topic of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of seismic hazard modeling have largely remained unchanged for more than 50 years, we review the most recent initiatives, which face the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and spatially precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time-independent hazard to forecasts that are time dependent and specific to the time period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science-driven models, which integrate all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the model to quantify its consistency and skill. We review the state of the art of the National Seismic Hazard Modeling and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	earthquake forecast; earthquake hazard; ground motion prediction; NSHM; PSHA; uncertainty
语种	英语
来源期刊	Reviews of Geophysics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/188082
作者单位	GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand; Department of Earth, Environmental, and Resources Sciences, Complesso di Monte Sant'Angelo, University of Naples Federico II, Napoli, Italy; Geoscience Australia, Symonston, ACT, Australia; GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy; Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland; Geologic Hazards Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, United States; National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan; Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gerstenberger M.C.,Marzocchi W.,Allen T.,et al. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis at Regional and National Scales: State of the Art and Future Challenges[J],2020,58(2).
APA	Gerstenberger M.C..,Marzocchi W..,Allen T..,Pagani M..,Adams J..,...&Petersen M.D..(2020).Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis at Regional and National Scales: State of the Art and Future Challenges.Reviews of Geophysics,58(2).
MLA	Gerstenberger M.C.,et al."Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis at Regional and National Scales: State of the Art and Future Challenges".Reviews of Geophysics 58.2(2020).