气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

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DOI	10.1029/2019RG000678
	An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence
	Sherwood S.C.; Webb M.J.; Annan J.D.; Armour K.C.; Forster P.M.; Hargreaves J.C.; Hegerl G.; Klein S.A.; Marvel K.D.; Rohling E.J.; Watanabe M.; Andrews T.; Braconnot P.; Bretherton C.S.; Foster G.L.; Hausfather Z.; von der Heydt A.S.; Knutti R.; Mauritsen T.; Norris J.R.; Proistosescu C.; Rugenstein M.; Schmidt G.A.; Tokarska K.B.; Zelinka M.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	87551209
卷号	58 期号:4
英文摘要	We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6–3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3–4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5–95% ranges are 2.3–4.7 K, bounded by 2.0–5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Bayesian methods; Climate; climate sensitivity; global warming
语种	英语
来源期刊	Reviews of Geophysics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/188075
作者单位	Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Blue Skies Research Ltd, Settle, United Kingdom; University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; PCMDI-LLNL, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Math, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, unité mi...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sherwood S.C.,Webb M.J.,Annan J.D.,et al. An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence[J],2020,58(4).
APA	Sherwood S.C..,Webb M.J..,Annan J.D..,Armour K.C..,Forster P.M..,...&Zelinka M.D..(2020).An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence.Reviews of Geophysics,58(4).
MLA	Sherwood S.C.,et al."An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence".Reviews of Geophysics 58.4(2020).