气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020RG000704
	Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards
	Merz B.; Kuhlicke C.; Kunz M.; Pittore M.; Babeyko A.; Bresch D.N.; Domeisen D.I.V.; Feser F.; Koszalka I.; Kreibich H.; Pantillon F.; Parolai S.; Pinto J.G.; Punge H.J.; Rivalta E.; Schröter K.; Strehlow K.; Weisse R.; Wurpts A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	87551209
卷号	58 期号:4
英文摘要	Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	early warning; impact forecasting; natural hazards
语种	英语
来源期刊	Reviews of Geophysics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/188073
作者单位	Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany; Department Urban and Environmental Sociology, UFZ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany; Section Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; EURAC Research, Institute for Earth Observation, Bolzano, Italy; Section Geodynamic Modeling, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland; Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany; GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University and Stockholm Unive...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Merz B.,Kuhlicke C.,Kunz M.,et al. Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards[J],2020,58(4).
APA	Merz B..,Kuhlicke C..,Kunz M..,Pittore M..,Babeyko A..,...&Wurpts A..(2020).Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards.Reviews of Geophysics,58(4).
MLA	Merz B.,et al."Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards".Reviews of Geophysics 58.4(2020).