气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty-First Century

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DOI	10.1029/2018JB016974
	Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty-First Century
	Poland M.P.; Anderson K.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699313
卷号	125 期号:1
英文摘要	A primary goal of volcanology is forecasting hazardous eruptive activity. Despite much progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors, lives and livelihoods are lost to eruptive activity, and forecasting the onsets of eruptions remains fraught with uncertainty. Long-term forecasts are generally derived from the geological and historical records, from which recurrence intervals and styles of activity can be inferred, while shorter-term forecasts are derived from patterns in monitoring data. Information from geology and monitoring data can be evaluated and combined using statistical analysis, expert elicitation, and conceptual and or mathematical models. Integrative frameworks, such as event trees, combine this diversity of information to produce probabilistic forecasts that can inform the style and scale of the societal response to a potential future eruption. Several developments show promise to revolutionize the utility and accuracy of these forecasts. These include growth in the quantity and quality of multidisciplinary monitoring data, coupled with increases in computing power; machine learning algorithms, which will allow far better utilization of this growing volume of data; and new physiochemical volcano models and data assimilation algorithms, which take advantage of a wide range of monitoring data and realistic physics to better predict the evolution of a given physical state. Although eruption forecasts may never be as generally reliable as weather forecasts, and great caution must be exercised when attempting to predict highly complex volcanic behavior, these and other innovations—particularly when combined in integrative, fully probabilistic forecasting frameworks—should help volcanologists to better issue warnings of volcanic activity on societally relevant time frames. Published 2019. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
英文关键词	Bayesian networks; eruption forecasting; machine learning; physiochemical models; volcano monitoring
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/188038
作者单位	Cascades Volcano Observatory, U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, WA, United States; California Volcano Observatory, U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Poland M.P.,Anderson K.R.. Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty-First Century[J],2020,125(1).
APA	Poland M.P.,&Anderson K.R..(2020).Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty-First Century.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,125(1).
MLA	Poland M.P.,et al."Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty-First Century".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 125.1(2020).