气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Toward Near-Field Tsunami Forecasting Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using Rapid GNSS Source Models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JB019636
	Toward Near-Field Tsunami Forecasting Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using Rapid GNSS Source Models
	Williamson A.L.; Melgar D.; Crowell B.W.; Arcas D.; Melbourne T.I.; Wei Y.; Kwong K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699313
卷号	125 期号:8
英文摘要	Over the past 15 years and through multiple large and devastating earthquakes, tsunami warning systems have grown considerably in their efficacy in providing timely and accurate forecasts to affected communities. However, one part of tsunami warning that still needs improvement is forecasts catered to local, near-field communities in the time after an earthquake rupture but before coastal inundation. In this study, we test a rapid, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)-driven earthquake characterization model using a large data set of synthetic megathrust ruptures for its near-field tsunami forecasting potential. We also provide a framework for tsunami forecasting that focuses on the likelihood of exceedance of user-defined coastal amplitudes that may be of use in the first 15 min following an earthquake. Specifically, we can estimate the earthquake magnitude, without saturation, for 82% of tested ruptures. We can also identify test ruptures as dominantly thrust events, without analyst guidance for 92% of tested thrust ruptures. Finally, modeling the tsunami component of our rapidly estimated fault rupture leads to greater than 80% accuracy in identifying tsunami impact at key coastal amplitude thresholds. This is promising for near-field warning when the time prior to inundation is limited to tens of minutes. We focus this study on large megathrust ruptures along the quiescent Cascadia subduction zone where there is already a dense GNSS network. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	GNSS; tsunami; tsunami warning
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187663
作者单位	Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, United States; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Lab, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Geological Sciences, Central Washington University, Ellensburg, WA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Williamson A.L.,Melgar D.,Crowell B.W.,et al. Toward Near-Field Tsunami Forecasting Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using Rapid GNSS Source Models[J],2020,125(8).
APA	Williamson A.L..,Melgar D..,Crowell B.W..,Arcas D..,Melbourne T.I..,...&Kwong K..(2020).Toward Near-Field Tsunami Forecasting Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using Rapid GNSS Source Models.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,125(8).
MLA	Williamson A.L.,et al."Toward Near-Field Tsunami Forecasting Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using Rapid GNSS Source Models".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 125.8(2020).