气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019JB018983
	Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview
	Simon K.M.; Riva R.E.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699313
卷号	125 期号:8
英文摘要	This work provides a comparison of four approaches that can be used to describe uncertainty in models of the long-term glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process. The four methods range from pessimistic to optimistic representations of GIA uncertainty. Each estimation method is applied to selected one dimensional GIA model predictions and compared with vertical land motion data from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements across Fennoscandia and North America. The methods are evaluated relative to two main properties: (1) their expected ability to separate non-GIA from GIA signals and (2) their estimated statistical appropriateness given a specific GIA model and data set. For the first point, non-GIA signals are considered isolated from the long-term (millennial time scale) GIA signal at sites where measurement and model uncertainties do not overlap. Across methods, the frequency and accuracy with which non-GIA signals are separated from GIA signals in GPS data display both consistent similarities and disparities. For the second point, we compare model predictions with rates of vertical land motion and relative sea level change that have been cleaned of non-GIA signals to determine the most appropriate value of model uncertainty and relate the findings to the four approaches. Best fit inferences suggest that within deglaciation centers, GIA model uncertainty is up to ~2 mm/yr (vertical land motion). Likewise, away from the former ice sheet centers, GIA uncertainty for relative sea level change is inferred to be ~0.3–0.5 mm/yr along the U.S. East Coast and ~0.6–0.8 mm/yr in the North Sea. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	glacial isostatic adjustment; GPS; model uncertainty; North America; relative sea level; Scandinavia
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187652
作者单位	NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, and Utrecht University, Yerseke, Netherlands; Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Simon K.M.,Riva R.E.M.. Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview[J],2020,125(8).
APA	Simon K.M.,&Riva R.E.M..(2020).Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,125(8).
MLA	Simon K.M.,et al."Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 125.8(2020).