气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stress-Dependent Magnitudes of Induced Earthquakes in the Groningen Gas Field

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DOI	10.1029/2020JB020013
	Stress-Dependent Magnitudes of Induced Earthquakes in the Groningen Gas Field
	Bourne S.J.; Oates S.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699313
卷号	125 期号:11
英文摘要	Geological faults may produce earthquakes under induced stresses associated with hydrocarbon extraction, geothermal extraction, or CO2 storage. The associated risks depend on the frequency and magnitude of these earthquakes. Within seismic risk analysis, the exceedance probability of seismic moments, (Formula presented.), is treated as a pure power law distribution, (Formula presented.), where the power law exponent, β, may vary in time or space or with stress. Insights from statistical mechanics theories of brittle failure, statistical seismology, and acoustic emissions experiments all indicate this pure power law may contain an exponential taper, (Formula presented.), where the taper strength, ζ, decreases with increasing stress. The role of this taper is to significantly reduce the probability of earthquakes larger than ζ−1 relative to the pure power law. We review the existing theoretical and observational evidence for a stress-dependent exponential taper to motivate a range of magnitude models suitable for induced seismicity risk analysis. These include stress-invariant models with and without a taper, stress-dependent β models without a taper, and stress-dependent ζ models. For each of these models, we evaluated their forecast performance within the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands using a combination of Bayesian inference, and simulations. Our results show that the stress-dependent ζ model with constant β likely offers (75–85%) higher performance forecasts than the stress-dependent β models with (Formula presented.). This model also lowers the magnitudes with a 10% and 1% chance of exceedance over the next 5 years of gas production from 4.3 to 3.7 and from 5.5 to 4.3, respectively. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	b values; Groningen; induced earthquakes; seismic hazard
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187516
作者单位	Shell Global Solutions International B.V., Amsterdam, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bourne S.J.,Oates S.J.. Stress-Dependent Magnitudes of Induced Earthquakes in the Groningen Gas Field[J],2020,125(11).
APA	Bourne S.J.,&Oates S.J..(2020).Stress-Dependent Magnitudes of Induced Earthquakes in the Groningen Gas Field.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,125(11).
MLA	Bourne S.J.,et al."Stress-Dependent Magnitudes of Induced Earthquakes in the Groningen Gas Field".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 125.11(2020).