气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Model and Caprock Deformation Explain the Onset of an Ongoing Seismo-Volcanic Unrest

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DOI	10.1029/2020JB020449
	Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Model and Caprock Deformation Explain the Onset of an Ongoing Seismo-Volcanic Unrest
	Akande W.G.; Gan Q.; Cornwell D.G.; De Siena L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	21699313
卷号	126 期号:3
英文摘要	Modeling seismicity at volcanoes remains challenging as the processes that control seismic energy release due to fluid transport, heat flow, and rock deformation are firmly coupled in complex geological media. Here, we couple fluid-flow and mechanical (deformation) simulators (TOUGHREACT–FLAC3D) to reproduce fluid-induced seismicity at Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy) in isothermal (HM) and nonisothermal (THM) conditions. The unique ability of the Campi Flegrei caprock to withstand stress induced by hot-water injections is included in the model parametrization. After pore pressure accumulation is guided by a combination of thermal and hydromechanical interactions, contrasting compressive and extensional forces act on the basal and top parts of the caprock, respectively. Then, pressure perturbation and caprock deformation induce fractures that allow hot fluids uprising to pressurize the overlying fault, driving it toward failure and triggering seismicity. Under similar mechanical boundary conditions, the induced thermal effects prompt seismic slip earlier but with higher seismic magnitudes when (1) thermal equilibrium is preserved and (2) the thermal contrast is enhanced due to increased fluid injection temperatures. The results indicate that numerical models of volcano seismicity must consider the influence of rock-sealing formations to obtain more robust, accurate, and realistic seismic predictions at volcanoes. The proposed models satisfactorily reproduce the magnitude–depth distribution of the swarm (October 5, 2019), preceding the two strongest earthquakes recorded in 35 years at the caldera (3.1 and 3.3—on December 6, 2019, and April 26, 2020, respectively) using hot-water injection from depth. © 2021. The Authors.
英文关键词	Campi Flegrei caldera; caprock deformation; induced seismicity; thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling; volcano seismicity
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187266
作者单位	Department of Geology and Geophysics, School of Geosciences, King's College, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; Department of Geology, School of Physical Sciences, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria; Institute of Geosciences, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Akande W.G.,Gan Q.,Cornwell D.G.,et al. Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Model and Caprock Deformation Explain the Onset of an Ongoing Seismo-Volcanic Unrest[J],2021,126(3).
APA	Akande W.G.,Gan Q.,Cornwell D.G.,&De Siena L..(2021).Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Model and Caprock Deformation Explain the Onset of an Ongoing Seismo-Volcanic Unrest.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,126(3).
MLA	Akande W.G.,et al."Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Model and Caprock Deformation Explain the Onset of an Ongoing Seismo-Volcanic Unrest".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 126.3(2021).