气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Heterogeneity of Aftershock Productivity Along the Mainshock Ruptures and Its Advantage in Improving Short-Term Aftershock Forecast

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DOI	10.1029/2020JB020494
	Heterogeneity of Aftershock Productivity Along the Mainshock Ruptures and Its Advantage in Improving Short-Term Aftershock Forecast
	Guo Y.; Zhuang J.; Zhang H.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	21699313
卷号	126 期号:4
英文摘要	This study introduces an improved hypocentral version of the space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, entitled as the 3D-finite source (3D-FS) ETAS model, and applies it to the analysis of the Southern California earthquake catalog. By stochastic reconstruction, we are able to reconstruct the patterns of aftershock productivity density along the mainshock ruptures. Detailed analysis of the productivity patterns reveals that: (1) Directly triggered aftershocks make up 21% to 41% of all earthquakes within the mainshock rupture areas, and show significant spatial heterogeneity and temporal migrations; (2) Major aftershocks tend to locate in low productivity areas, at the edges of clusters formed by small aftershocks; (3) Large slip areas are depleted of aftershocks, over 60% of all productivity distributes in areas with slip less than 0.3 times of the maximum slip, and the trajectory of the productivity pattern on the fault plane demonstrates apparent compensation to coseismic slip. We relate the difference in triggering abilities of four mainshocks to the heat flow in corresponding regions. Simulation results suggest that the 3D-FS ETAS model has apparent advantages of improving the performance of short-term aftershock forecast. Moreover, the later aftershocks are more correlated with the locations of subsequent events than earlier aftershocks, suggesting that the migration of aftershocks is important for mitigating aftershock hazard. © 2021. The Authors.
英文关键词	Aftershock migration; aftershock productivity; background seismicity; earthquake triggering; short-term forecasting; stochastic reconstruction
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187227
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo Y.,Zhuang J.,Zhang H.. Heterogeneity of Aftershock Productivity Along the Mainshock Ruptures and Its Advantage in Improving Short-Term Aftershock Forecast[J],2021,126(4).
APA	Guo Y.,Zhuang J.,&Zhang H..(2021).Heterogeneity of Aftershock Productivity Along the Mainshock Ruptures and Its Advantage in Improving Short-Term Aftershock Forecast.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,126(4).
MLA	Guo Y.,et al."Heterogeneity of Aftershock Productivity Along the Mainshock Ruptures and Its Advantage in Improving Short-Term Aftershock Forecast".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 126.4(2021).