气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multisource Bayesian Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Gulf of Naples (Italy)

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019JC015373
	Multisource Bayesian Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Gulf of Naples (Italy)
	Grezio A.; Cinti F.R.; Costa A.; Faenza L.; Perfetti P.; Pierdominici S.; Pondrelli S.; Sandri L.; Tierz P.; Tonini R.; Selva J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699275
卷号	125 期号:2
英文摘要	A methodology for a comprehensive probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis is presented for the major sources of tsunamis (seismic events, landslides, and volcanic activity) and preliminarily applied in the Gulf of Naples (Italy). The methodology uses both a modular procedure to evaluate the tsunami hazard and a Bayesian analysis to include the historical information of the past tsunami events. In the (Formula presented.) the submarine earthquakes and the submarine mass failures are initially identified in a gridded domain and defined by a set of parameters, producing the sea floor deformations and the corresponding initial tsunami waves. Differently volcanic tsunamis generate sea surface waves caused by pyroclastic density currents from Somma-Vesuvius. In the (Formula presented.) the tsunami waves are simulated and propagated in the deep sea by a numerical model that solves the shallow water equations. In the (Formula presented.) the tsunami wave heights are estimated at the coast using the (Formula presented.) 's amplification law. The selected tsunami intensity is the wave height. In the (Formula presented.) the probabilistic tsunami analysis computes the long-term comprehensive Bayesian probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis. In the prior analysis the probabilities from the scenarios in which the tsunami parameter overcomes the selected threshold levels are combined with the spatial, temporal, and frequency-size probabilities of occurrence of the tsunamigenic sources. The (Formula presented.) probability density functions are integrated with the (Formula presented.) derived from the historical information based on past tsunami data. The (Formula presented.) probability density functions are evaluated to produce the hazard curves in selected sites of the Gulf of Naples. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	pyroclastic density current; submarine mass failure; submarine seismic source; tsunami hazard curves; tsunami hazard maps; tsunamigenic events
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186996
作者单位	Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy; Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam, Germany; British Geological Survey, The Lyell Centre, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Grezio A.,Cinti F.R.,Costa A.,et al. Multisource Bayesian Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Gulf of Naples (Italy)[J],2020,125(2).
APA	Grezio A..,Cinti F.R..,Costa A..,Faenza L..,Perfetti P..,...&Selva J..(2020).Multisource Bayesian Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Gulf of Naples (Italy).Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,125(2).
MLA	Grezio A.,et al."Multisource Bayesian Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Gulf of Naples (Italy)".Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 125.2(2020).